Powell's Ultimate Stress Test: How Will Tonight's Congressional Testimony Detonate the Crypto Nuclear Bomb?
Early Warning! Powell Faces the Most Dangerous Congressional Hearing in History
Only 3 hours left until Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stands on Capitol Hill, and the global market has entered a 'war state'—Trump tweeted again this morning demanding 'Powell must cut rates by 2%'; two Federal Reserve governors, Waller and Bowman, suddenly switched sides to support a rate cut in July, compounded by the Middle East situation repeatedly tugging at oil prices, the crypto market is about to welcome an epic double kill in long and short positions.
Core Conflict Point: Internal Division in the Federal Reserve and Political Pressure
The current situation has broken through the dimensional wall between traditional finance and the crypto market:
Rate Cut Faction Counterattack: Federal Reserve governors Waller and Bowman openly support a rate cut in July, directly conflicting with Powell's 'wait and see' stance, leading CME interest rate futures to show a skyrocketing probability of a July rate cut at 23% (doubling from a week ago).
Trump's Nuclear Bomb Tweet: Trump's latest statement demands 'at least a 2-3 percentage point rate cut', claiming it could save $800 billion in government debt costs each year, and threatens that 'Congress must teach this idiot a lesson'.
Inflation Data Paradox: The core PCE in May only increased by 0.1% month-on-month, running at a low level for three consecutive months, but the Federal Reserve internally believes that the tariff impact has not yet fully transmitted to the CPI, forming a 'Data vs. Politics' death spiral.
Deadly Transmission Chain in the Crypto Market: Three Nuclear Explosion Points
Personal Prediction: Tonight's hearing will severely impact the crypto market through three paths.
Dollar Liquidity Strangulation: If Powell hints at delaying rate cuts, the DXY index may violently surge above 106 (currently at 104.3), leading to a daily liquidation of over $1.5 billion in BTC/USD perpetual contracts.
Leverage Liquidation Wave: The total open positions of cryptocurrency contracts across the network currently reach $42 billion, with ETH contract leverage exceeding a historical extreme of 12 times; a price fluctuation of 5% could trigger a chain liquidation of $2 billion.
Stablecoin Decoupling Risk: Commercial paper accounts for 32% of USDT reserves; if the hearing triggers panic redemptions in the market, it could replay the decoupling disaster of May 2022 (falling as low as $0.92).
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