Macro interpretation: The first meeting of China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanisms has concluded in London, with both sides reaching a principled consensus on implementing the leaders' consensus, showing signs of a phased easing in economic and trade relations. While this reduces the geopolitical risk premium, it subtly alters the market's demand expectations for 'safe-haven assets'—traditionally favored during geopolitical tensions, #BTC now needs to find new narrative support.
The shift in macro expectations directly stirs market nerves. Traders are betting with actions that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates once in 2025, marking the smallest rate cut expectation in nearly three months. Deutsche Bank's research provides a representative judgment: the upcoming U.S. May CPI data (expected annual rate of 2.5%, previous value of 2.3%, Article 3) will only reinforce the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance. Tonight's 20:30 CPI data has become the touchstone of market sentiment—stronger-than-expected data may douse the overexcited market with cold water, further weakening rate cut expectations.
Regulation and product innovation are brewing structural opportunities. The (CLARITY Act) has passed review in the U.S. Financial Services Committee with a vote of 32:19 and is about to enter the full House vote. If this bill is ultimately enacted, it will provide a clearer framework for crypto regulation, benefiting the compliance process in the long term. Musk's 'regret' regarding his comments about Trump caused Tesla's U.S. stock to rise over 2% in pre-market, reflecting the extreme volatility of American public opinion. This uncertainty could also disrupt risk appetite at any time.
Bitcoin itself has reached a critical juncture. Market analysis points to a warning signal: widespread expectations on social media for Bitcoin to hit a 'historic high.' Historical experience shows that when retail investors are unanimously bullish, the market often requires a longer time to consolidate. Subtly, Bitcoin's current price is just 2.1% away from its historic peak of $111,970 set on May 22, and this stalemate, which is so close yet difficult to break through, reflects the market's hesitation in the macro fog.
The explosive catalyst comes from expectations of a 'Summer of Altcoin ETFs'—Bloomberg analysts indicate that the SEC may approve ETFs tracking a broad cryptocurrency index as soon as next month, with Solana and staking ETFs also likely to be released early. If these products come to fruition, they will introduce unprecedented incremental funding channels to the crypto market, fundamentally changing the liquidity landscape for altcoins.
Where is the market headed? In the short term, the CPI data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week (the market has priced in a hold) will dominate volatility. If inflation data is mild, it may briefly boost risk assets, but the persistent weakening of rate cut expectations will ultimately suppress the upside potential. The tug-of-war around Bitcoin's historical highs requires stronger spot demand (rather than Ethereum-style leveraged drives) or new favorable catalysts (such as accelerated ETF inflows) for an effective breakthrough. Market observations mention that the current Ethereum price is primarily driven by high-leverage futures (with funding rates soaring to 13.7%), and the market structure is increasingly fragile, amplifying the potential impact of macro data shocks.
In the long term, if the 'Summer of Altcoin ETFs' can be realized, it will trigger a 'seesaw effect' of internal fund rotation in the market, potentially weakening Bitcoin's dominant position temporarily. The advancement of the (CLARITY Act) signifies that the compliance process of crypto assets within the mainstream financial system is irreversible, laying a more solid foundation for the next bull market.
In the summer of 2025, crypto investors need to remain vigilant: as Bitcoin approaches its previous highs, what the market is truly waiting for may be the gunshot that breaks the balance, whether it's a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve or an approval that opens the era of altcoin ETFs. The fog will eventually dissipate, and those who are prepared with ammunition will occupy the high ground in the next charge.
ETH data analysis: CoinAnk data shows that Ethereum futures contract funding rates are approaching 0.01%, and the annualized rate has surged to 13.7%, the highest level since the beginning of the year, which is seen by the market as a positive sign that may stimulate inflows into Ethereum ETFs. However, the open interest in derivatives is nearing last year's historic peak, indicating that the current price increase is primarily driven by leveraged futures trading rather than spot demand. In contrast, Bitcoin remains predominantly spot-driven, while Ethereum's trend shows clear differentiation. Meanwhile, the surge in bullish options purchases and the gamma hedging effect have exacerbated price gap risks, increasing market vulnerability and sensitivity to short-term fluctuations.
High funding rates reflect excessive optimism in the market, but leverage accumulation may amplify volatility risks. Historical experience shows that similar situations are vulnerable to macro event shocks, such as changes in Federal Reserve policy or geopolitical tensions, leading to chain liquidations. Regarding the impact on the crypto market, inflows into Ethereum ETFs are expected to boost confidence and prices, with Standard Chartered predicting a potential rise of ETH to $8,000. However, if the derivative-driven uptrend reverses, it will affect the entire market, especially the altcoin ecosystem, exacerbating overall volatility. In the long run, ETF approvals may enhance institutional participation and promote market legalization, but the current fragile state requires caution against short-term pullback risks.
