Directory:
1. Large token unlocking data this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on weekly popular coins' rises and falls/fund flows in sectors;
3. Dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF;
4. BTC liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events and key previews and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market this week.
1. Large token unlocking data this week;
Coinank data shows that tokens such as #APT and STRK, IMX will see large unlocks this week, among which:
Aptos (APT) will unlock about 11.31 million tokens at 12 PM on June 12, accounting for 1.79% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $52.7 million;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock about 127 million tokens at 8 AM on June 15, accounting for 3.79% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $16.6 million;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock about 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM on June 13, accounting for 1.33% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $12.8 million;
Movement (MOVE) will unlock about 50 million tokens at 8 PM on June 9, accounting for 1.96% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $7.1 million;
BounceBit (BB) will unlock about 42.89 million tokens at 8 AM on June 12, accounting for 10.47% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $4.6 million;
Delysium (AGI) will unlock about 69.03 million tokens at 8 AM on June 11, accounting for 4.00% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $3.8 million;
Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock about 296 million tokens at 8 AM on June 15, accounting for 0.88% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $4.3 million;
Cookie DAO (COOKIE) will unlock about 13.88 million tokens at 8 AM on June 13, accounting for 2.54% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $2.9 million;
io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 3.22 million tokens at 8 PM on June 11, accounting for 1.98% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $2.5 million.
We believe that this unlock event involves multiple altcoins, totaling over $80 million in value, which may exert downward pressure on the market in the short term. APT, STRK, and IMX, as key unlock targets, have a relatively low new supply ratio (APT 1.79%, STRK 3.79%, IMX 1.33%), but historical data shows that such events are often seen as 'bearish signals', as early investors may liquidate their holdings, exacerbating market volatility. For example, the STRK unlock from Starknet was alleviated by a planned adjustment, but the release of 127 million tokens this time may still suppress price upside. At the same time, tokens like BB have a higher unlock ratio (e.g., BB reaches 10.47%), posing more significant risks, potentially triggering local selling pressure. From a macro perspective, the overall token unlock scale in June is huge (evidence shows over $650 million), coupled with the current background of insufficient liquidity in altcoins, investors need to be wary of short-term correction risks and pay attention to market absorption capacity post-unlock. It is recommended to monitor real-time price fluctuations and avoid chasing highs.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on weekly popular coins' rises and falls/fund flows in sectors
CoinAnk data shows that due to the overall downward trend, in the past week, the crypto market, divided by conceptual sectors, saw only Binance Smart Chain achieve a net inflow of capital, while Launchpool, RWA, fan tokens, Storage, and BRC20 saw relatively small outflows.
In the past seven days, the list of coins with the largest increases is as follows (selecting the top 200 by market capitalization), #rvn , #Titan , AB, #ICX and SPX have relatively high increases, and strong coins should continue to be a focus for trading opportunities this week.
3. Dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF funds.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, the net outflow from the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $131.6 million, among which: BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of $81.1 million; Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of $167.7 million; ARKB had a net outflow of $24.5 million.
The total on-chain holding amount of the US spot Bitcoin ETF has exceeded 1.1 million tokens #BTC , currently touching around 1.184 million BTC, accounting for 5.96% of the current BTC supply, and the on-chain holding value has reached approximately $125.8 billion.
The US spot Ethereum ETF has seen a continuous inflow for 15 days. Since May 16, this wave of continuous inflow has accumulated to $837.5 million, which is about 25% of the total net inflow of $3.32 billion since the spot Ethereum ETF was launched in July 2024. If this pattern continues for another week, an additional $162.5 million inflow will bring the total continuous inflow to $1 billion.
In contrast, the inflow momentum of the spot Bitcoin ETF was broken on May 29, when there was an outflow of $346.8 million. Since then, capital flows have been fluctuating, alternating between inflows and outflows.
We believe that the recent cryptocurrency ETF market has shown significant divergence. Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows have experienced a volatility reversal: last week saw a net outflow of $131.6 million, consistent with the cautious sentiment reflected by the record single-week outflow of $3.2 billion set in August 2024. However, it is noteworthy that BlackRock's IBIT still achieved a net inflow of $81.1 million against the trend, highlighting institutional capital's risk-averse tendency in leading products. Currently, the holding volume of Bitcoin ETFs in the US is 1.184 million BTC (accounting for 5.96% of total supply), an increase of 87% from the holding scale of 632,000 BTC at the beginning of 2025, indicating a continuous strengthening of long-term capital lock-in effects.
In contrast, the Ethereum spot ETF shows strong momentum: the cumulative net inflow over 15 days has reached $837.5 million, accounting for 25% of the historical total net inflow of $3.32 billion in this category. If this growth rate is maintained, it may break the $1 billion milestone this week. This sustained capital absorption ability validates Standard Chartered's predictive model — that Ethereum ETFs could attract $15 billion to $45 billion in funds within 12 months of approval. It is particularly noteworthy that the divergence in capital flow may reflect a shift in market expectations: after a single-day outflow of $346.8 million from the Bitcoin ETF on May 29, it entered a volatile cycle, while the stable inflow of the Ethereum ETF may indicate that investors are turning to the staking yield potential of ETH and the $8,000 price target.
Deep data reveals two major trends: first, the proportion of Bitcoin ETF holdings has jumped from 3.2% at the beginning of 2025 to 5.96%, indicating that institutional holdings are accelerating the lock-in of circulating chips; second, the number of consecutive inflow days for the Ethereum ETF has set a record, contrasting sharply with the capital rupture of the Bitcoin ETF, potentially pushing the ETH/BTC exchange rate into a new equilibrium range.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks above $110,000, the cumulative liquidation intensity of short positions on mainstream CEXs will reach $5.27 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $100,300, the cumulative liquidation intensity of long positions on mainstream CEXs will reach $5.37 billion.
We believe that the current Bitcoin market faces a key price threshold game, with the leverage risks of both long and short positions significantly amplified. If BTC breaks above $110,000, it will trigger a liquidation intensity of up to $5.27 billion in short positions, potentially causing a 'short squeeze' effect — concentrated short covering behavior will create a liquidity wave, further pushing up prices and strengthening the upward trend. Conversely, if it falls below $100,300, the $5.37 billion liquidation intensity of long positions indicates a dense leverage long position below; if the support level is breached, it may trigger a chain liquidation of 'long kills long', leading to short-term liquidity exhaustion and amplifying downside risks.
Several deep features need special attention: currently, risk exposure is expanding, compared to earlier data (such as the $104,000 breakthrough in January 2025 triggering only $260 million in short liquidations), the current liquidation scale is growing exponentially, reflecting a simultaneous increase in market leverage and volatility sensitivity; liquidation intensity is not an exact amount, but rather a measure of market response intensity through the comparison of adjacent price level liquidation cluster density; regarding threshold drift phenomenon, key liquidation thresholds move up with the price center (for example, the April drop below $80,000 corresponding to $4.5 billion in long liquidations, which has risen to the $100,000 range in June), indicating a dynamic adjustment of market risk structure.
Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-leverage sensitivity zone, with $110,000 and $100,000 forming a key defensive line for long and short positions, any directional breakthrough may exacerbate short-term volatility due to a wave of forced liquidations.
5. Key macro events and key previews and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market this week.
CoinAnk data shows:
June 9: Trump: will hold talks with China in London;
The US Senate may vote on the GENIUS stablecoin bill as soon as June 9;
The US SEC will hold a cryptocurrency-themed roundtable meeting;
On June 10, the US House of Representatives plans to review the cryptocurrency market structure bill CLARITY Act;
On June 11, the US will announce May CPI data at 20:30.
We believe that the current macro situation presents a dual-game characteristic of policy and data:
The overlapping period of geopolitical and policy intensification: Trump plans to hold high-level talks between China and the US in London, coinciding with the acceleration of the US Congress in advancing cryptocurrency legislation (GENIUS stablecoin bill Senate vote, CLARITY Act House review), reflecting a strategic intention to coordinate the advancement of digital finance regulation and trade policy. The SEC will hold a cryptocurrency-themed roundtable during the same period, highlighting regulatory agencies' proactive involvement in emerging financial forms.
Inflation data becomes a watershed for the market: May CPI forecast shows overall inflation slightly rising year-on-year to 2.4% (previous value 2.3%), core inflation remains at 2.8%, suggesting that the deflation process may be stalling. The Cleveland Fed model predicts that core commodity inflation may peak this fall, but the 'pause on reciprocal tariffs' has led to downward adjustments and delays in peak forecasts. This data will directly test the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts; if actual data exceeds expectations, it may trigger a reassessment of the monetary policy path.
Market sentiment is structurally differentiated: although US stocks hit a three-month high (led by tech stocks), stock funds have seen capital outflows for three consecutive weeks, reflecting investors taking profits amid policy uncertainty. Gold experienced increased volatility but closed higher, with central bank purchases (such as China increasing holdings for seven consecutive months) and geopolitical risks still providing support. Trump again pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, highlighting the tension between political forces and monetary authorities.
In summary, the core variable this week lies in the interaction between actual CPI data and legislative progress: if inflation rises above expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance and exacerbate asset volatility; while the progress of cryptocurrency legislation relates to the global competitiveness reshaping of US dollar stablecoins.
