Macroeconomic interpretation: The wave of interest rate cuts by global central banks is becoming a core driving force in the cryptocurrency market. The European Central Bank's interest rate cut on June 6 has almost become a foregone conclusion, with market analysis suggesting that, considering the continued decline in Eurozone inflation and the tightening of the U.S. trade stance towards the EU, interest rates could further drop to around 1.5% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to weaken, nearing a two-year low, with Bank of America Securities predicting this will drive funds into emerging market assets, bringing considerable returns, with the dollar's weakness being the most critical driving factor. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are also rising, with the CME FedWatch tool showing that the probability of a rate cut in September surged from 2% to 4.4%, marking the largest single-day increase of the year.
Expectations of interest rate cuts directly stimulate the growth in demand for crypto assets. The latest data shows that the number of U.S. holders has reached 49.6 million, significantly surpassing the 36.7 million gold holders, and the average holding amount (11,089 USD) is over seven times that of gold (1,512 USD). This clearly indicates that crypto assets have broken out of niche domains and become an important option for mainstream asset allocation.
On-chain data is sending positive signals. CoinAnk data monitoring indicates that the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons indicator has flashed a buy signal—this indicator assesses miner pressure by comparing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of computing power. Recently, after achieving a historical high in computing power, some miners faced short-term pressure and were forced to sell BTC, but history shows that this selling pressure often forms a long-term bottom. The miner holding index has concurrently fallen to 0.49, nearing the historical low region, further confirming that the selling pressure is approaching its end.
Macroeconomic policy uncertainty is also accumulating. The relationship between Trump and Musk has sharply deteriorated recently, with Musk expressing strong dissatisfaction over the White House's withdrawal of his ally NASA director nomination and publicly criticizing Trump's tax policies. A White House official revealed: "The president is confused by Musk's sudden criticism after months of close collaboration." If the relationship between tech leaders and the political sphere continues to be tense, it may affect the stability of the cryptocurrency regulatory environment.
The Ethereum ecosystem exhibits strategic resilience. The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has released new fiscal policies, clearly stating that annual operating expenses will be compressed to a long-term benchmark of 5%, with funds primarily directed towards enhancing DeFi security, privacy protection, and decentralized protocol innovation. The EF emphasizes the development of the 'Defipunk' concept through periodic ETH sales and deployments, injecting long-term confidence into the ecosystem.
The market harbors structural risks; pump.fun data indicates that among over 4.25 million frequently traded addresses in the past six months, more than 60% are losers, with only 21.5% achieving small profits (0-1,000 USD). Even more alarming is that approximately 1,700 addresses have lost over 100,000 USD. This reveals a significant 'few profit' effect in the current market, where blindly chasing up and down can easily become 'fuel.'
This bull market cycle presents a unique trajectory, different from 2017 and 2021, with the current bull market exhibiting a phenomenon of 'artificial market suppression'—large institutions delay overheating by creating sharp corrections, such as the two deep adjustments in March 2024 and January 2025, which significantly suppressed the performance of altcoins and market sentiment. Historical patterns suggest that this suppression will ultimately release in a 'frenzy bubble' phase.
Regarding the impact on the crypto market, BTC stands to benefit in the short term: expectations of interest rate cuts + a weakening dollar constitute double positives, with on-chain buying signals and the tail end of miner selling pressure overlapping, BTC may welcome a rebound window. Mainstream coins are undergoing a value reassessment: the number of holders in the U.S. surpassing that of gold confirms the mainstreaming of crypto assets, and projects like ETH, which have substantial ecological support, will attract long-term funding.
Policy sensitivity is increasing: Trump's unconventional tactics and the fluctuations in relationships between tech giants and the political sphere may amplify the impact of regulatory uncertainty.
The current market is at a delicate balance point—macro easing is facing miner selling pressure and technical adjustment demand, while retail enthusiasm and institutional control are in a tug-of-war. Investors should seize opportunities for core asset (such as BTC, ETH) accumulation on dips, but remain cautious of altcoins lacking substantial support. History does not repeat itself simply, but it always follows similar rhythms: when the gates of artificial suppression are released, the market will ultimately seek new price anchors in the tide of liquidity.
BTC data analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that after the Bitcoin network's computing power broke a peak, some miners passively reduced their Bitcoin reserves due to soaring operational costs, creating short-term market selling pressure. However, historical patterns indicate that such sell-offs driven by miner pressure often correspond to the formation of long-term market bottom regions. The current miner holding index has fallen to a historical low of 0.49, combined with the recent buy signal triggered by the Hash Ribbons indicator, pointing towards the completion of the market clearing process. This indicator effectively captures the turning points of miner operating pressure by monitoring the crossover changes of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of computing power, and historical data shows that its signals are often accompanied by significant price rebound cycles.
From the market impact perspective, while short-term miner sell-offs exacerbate liquidity pressure, they essentially represent passive supply releases. When high computing power operations lead to the exit of inefficient miners, the overall mining cost structure is optimized, thus solidifying market bottom support. Historical cases indicate (such as a 260% increase after the indicator triggered in 2019) that Hash Ribbons buy signals often precede the commencement of a new upward trend. The current phase reflects not only the short-term pain experienced by miners but also highlights positive signals for market supply and demand rebalancing—along with the clearing of inefficient capacity, coupled with the holding index hitting bottom and resonance of on-chain indicators, the crypto market may be nurturing an important allocation opportunity.