I believe everyone is already aware of the small non-farm data released yesterday, with an expectation of 130,000 and an actual result of just over 30,000, far below expectations. This may lead to similar results for the non-farm data to be released on Friday or further exacerbate the downward trend.
However, regarding the negative data, it presents a very good opportunity for us. If the market falls rapidly due to the non-farm data, for those who did not buy at the last bottom, this decline is your moment to buy in cash.
The current market situation is clear to everyone; Bitcoin has been sluggish since June, with little upward momentum. The rise from April 7 to the end of May lasted for over a month without much adjustment, and now it has finally come. I mentioned this earlier; after reaching a new high, one can short.
Lastly, let's talk about the overall trading strategy for the market.
First, let's look at BTC. Bitcoin has been in a pullback for the past few days, with a relatively small amplitude. This market trend is very similar to the previous bull market structure, with a double top formation leading to a prolonged oscillating downward trend. From the current market perspective, it is still advisable to short at the high points. Moreover, the view has been to maintain short positions this month, shorting at 1065-107k and looking at 102k below. Unless there is another hot narrative driving the market upwards. Long positions can also be considered, but they are not strongly recommended.
Next, let's take a look at ETH and altcoins. Since Ethereum upgraded, its upward trend remains notable, especially in the past two days when Bitcoin has been continuously sluggish. There is always a small rally, but it quickly falls back afterwards. Whether it can generate an independent market trend depends on the efforts of all the E guardians.
However, regarding Ethereum, I still maintain the same viewpoint as with Bitcoin: focus on short positions. Currently, the fluctuation level of ETH has widened, oscillating between 2480-2720. If the next rise does not break through the resistance, there will be a deeper pullback, at least to the 2450 level. The upper level around 2700 is a good short position, while for long positions, a short-term entry around 2560 can be attempted. Recently, there have been too many explosions in altcoins, and in the current market situation, I do not recommend positioning in altcoins.
In conclusion, the overall strategy is still focused on short positions, and Friday's non-farm data will be the new market focus. I believe there will be quite a few articles speculating about interest rate cuts appearing recently, but this is not impossible; the small non-farm data is indeed too poor. If there really is a rate cut, the strategy should change. Altcoins can be bought in cash after Bitcoin's pullback and subsequent decline, and the small circle will notify in a timely manner.
