Ethereum is about to start an independent market trend, and the upcoming altcoins will enter a phase of purification!
The first half of the year is nearing its end, and 2025 is officially entering the second half. Looking back at the entire first half of the year, it can only be described as 'bleak' — Ethereum, as the second largest in the industry with a market cap of over a trillion, saw its price plummet from $4,100 to $1,400.
Many altcoins are struggling to escape the fate of a drastic decline, with most coins experiencing drops of several times or even dozens of times, continuously setting new historical lows, and market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic. The market now almost uniformly holds a bearish outlook; even with Ethereum rebounding from $1,400 to $2,700 in May, few believe the trend can continue, and many expect a more severe decline after this round of increases.
The situation for altcoins is even more pessimistic, as the market generally believes only Bitcoin has investment value, while other coins seem to have become 'sheep waiting to be slaughtered under the main players' scythe,' with buying equivalent to giving money to the market makers.
In the past two days, ETH has shown stronger 'resilience' compared to other coins — when the market adjusts, its decline has noticeably narrowed. This phenomenon releases a key signal: major capital may have completed its prior adjustment goals and is not inclined to continue massively dumping.
ETH's current resistance to decline is mainly driven by three key factors:
Firstly, positive policy releases: Last week, U.S. regulators relaxed staking policies for POS models, which is the biggest potential benefit for ETH in the second half of the year. Previously, ETF staking applications had not received SEC approval for a long time, and the new policy implies that future applications may not need to be made proactively. Although details remain to be clarified, it has already released signals of regulatory easing.
Secondly, financial innovation drives growth: The ETF model's 'micro-strategy' product SharpLink has emerged, and similar products may appear in bulk among mainstream coins like SOL in the future. Although most projects are essentially financing needs, it is foreseeable that SOL versions of similar products are in preparation and will likely be announced when the market turns bullish, while related parties may be secretly accumulating chips at this stage.
Thirdly, stablecoins' linkage to traditional finance: The U.S. and Hong Kong recently launched new stablecoin policies, and last week the stablecoin concept sectors in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks surged in popularity. The stablecoin issued by JD.com has chosen to land on the ETH chain, and with the continuous advancement of RWA (real-world assets on-chain), ETH, as the world's first public chain, has significantly higher attractiveness to traditional financial institutions due to its highest level of decentralization and reliability compared to other public chains.
The trend of altcoins will become a key observation window. The current market state is very reminiscent of the 'last round of emotional clearing' stage — panic selling is frequent, which often indicates a market reversal.
Altcoins are undergoing 'extreme panic' cleansing: this is the last round of selling before a rebound, and market sentiment has reached a freezing point.
Bitcoin's pullback to below $100,000 may become a reversal point: If BTC stabilizes below $100,000, it is likely to trigger a reversal in market sentiment.
ETH's resistance to decline indicates that capital allocation is nearing completion: major players have basically finished their layout, and the market structure may shift back to a strong position.
The golden pit is born at the limit of emotions: the true bottom is not guessed but emerges from the 'emotional extremes' during widespread panic and collapsing confidence.
Currently, the market is in despair, with many investors panic-selling due to fear of further losses. However, historical patterns show that when the market falls to the point where 'everyone is hopeless and fears cryptocurrencies,' the bottom is often near, and a rebound could start at any time.
Small coins are experiencing the most severe phase of this downturn; extreme panic is usually a dual signal of the end of the decline and the prelude to a rebound. If Bitcoin can drop to a relatively low level (e.g., below $100,000) and establish a stabilization structure, the overall probability of market recovery will significantly increase.
ETH's strong performance is essentially an external manifestation of major capital's nearing completion of its layout, and the market may have quietly entered a turning cycle. Truly smart investors never attempt to precisely catch the bottom but wait for the market to fall into extreme panic and a tidal wave of selling — this is often when the risk is lowest and opportunity is greatest.
In terms of operational strategy, the altcoin sector is adjusting alongside mainstream coins; market sentiment remains low, and the altcoin index has once again retreated to historical low ranges. Once mainstream coins stabilize after a pullback, gradual follow-up layouts can be made.
Meme sector: Pay attention to adjustment opportunities for coins like penple;
ETH ecosystem: Projects like SSV, EIGEN, and ETHFI can continue to be held;
BSC chain: Recently, Alpha activities have been frequent; it is recommended to participate actively and accumulate Alpha points;
MEME market: Keep a close watch to capture short-term hotspots;
SOL chain ecosystem: Heat is gradually recovering, with a focus on related quality projects.
If you already hold altcoin positions, even if they are temporarily under water, you can patiently wait for the market to warm up — the market cycle has never stopped, and dawn may be quietly brewing at the end of the panic.
