Anomaly detected in on-chain data! A serious divergence has emerged.
"Important economic data is about to be released, and the market is clearly concerned about the actual performance of the economic data. Many may likely seek safe havens before the economic data is published next Wednesday..." However, what I see from on-chain data is not a 'possibility,' but a real 'fact' that has occurred.
Figure 1 shows the realized profits differentiated by wallet size; it can be seen that on April 25, when BTC rebounded to over $94,000, there was a huge amount of profit-taking, primarily driven by a super whale group holding more than 10,000 BTC, which collectively cashed out nearly $1.7 billion in profits.
The current market is still event-driven in its rise and fall relationship
Important data this week may have a direct impact 4/28 Monday: Canada holds federal elections 4/29 Tuesday 4/30 Wednesday: U.S. Q1 GDP data U.S. March Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year (22:00) World Gold Council releases Q1 "Gold Demand Trends" report 5/1 Thursday: U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (20:30) U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00) Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook 5/2 Friday: U.S. April Unemployment Rate (20:30) U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls (20:30) The weekend did not see another surge during Asian hours as expected, and the market's fatigue is becoming more apparent. There are also more variables in this week’s games. This week features earnings reports from key tech stocks, as well as MSTR's earnings report, and at the end of the month, the U.S. Q1 GDP data. Once this data is released, the long-short game in the U.S. stock market will become more evident. Will it follow a recession path, or can it take a loosening path? The GDP may very well accelerate the Fed's choices. This week could be more critical. Even at a 0.4% GDP growth rate, it would be the lowest point in the last three years. In terms of market prices, BTC is currently in the range of 94,000-95,000, with resistance above at 96,500-97,500 and support below at 93,000-92,000. Essentially, it is waiting for new sentiment to maintain a fluctuating directional choice. At this time, it is advisable to reduce positions if there are some profits. Holding on means gambling on the upcoming market sentiment to continue improving. This is a personal choice, as it is not a reversal at the moment. The rebound trend is prone to rollercoaster fluctuations, so just avoid heavy positions. If you are willing to gamble on the sentiment continuing to improve, then hold on. In situations where you see profits, you can consider taking some profit off the table. Additionally, many observation projects have surged, and everyone should avoid these types of projects. These projects are just trying to take the last wave before being delisted. Do you think the dealer's knife is faster, or is your hand speed quicker? I believe this statement can give you enough judgment to see the rise of these observation projects. $PEPE $SOL $XRP #加密市场反弹 #AI概念币领跑 #特朗普税改
Approval of XRP Futures ETF May Trigger Price Increase
On April 27, 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved ProShares Trust to launch three XRP futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs): ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, ProShares UltraShort XRP ETF, and ProShares Short XRP ETF. These three funds offer 2x long, 2x short, and 1x short exposure to XRP futures prices, providing investors with a regulated tool to bet on price trends without needing to hold XRP directly. Set to be listed on NYSE Arca on April 30, these ETFs not only mark another breakthrough for XRP into mainstream finance but also spark heated discussions in the market regarding the approval process for crypto ETFs.
Spot ETFs hold crypto assets directly, making their prices more closely aligned with real-time markets, and typically have lower management fees (0.2%-0.5%), making them more attractive to both retail and institutional investors. The approval of spot ETFs is more challenging, as the SEC has long been concerned about the risks of market manipulation, insufficient liquidity, and investor protection issues in the crypto market. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 (including products from Grayscale and BlackRock) attracted over $50 billion in inflows, causing BTC prices to rise from $42,000 to $70,000 within three months. Ethereum spot ETF was approved in July 2024, with inflows of about $10 billion, leading to a 20% increase in ETH prices. The advantages of spot ETFs far exceed those of futures ETFs for three reasons: Direct price linkage: Spot ETFs hold assets directly, reducing the impact of futures premiums or discounts, resulting in more transparent pricing. Institutional appeal: Spot ETFs align better with traditional asset allocation needs, attracting large players like pension funds and hedge funds. Market confidence: Spot ETFs are seen as a symbol of the 'legitimization' of crypto assets, boosting community morale and long-term investment. The application for an XRP spot ETF (submitted by Grayscale, Bitwise, etc.) is still under review. Polymarket predicts a 75% chance of approval by the end of 2025, driven by the success of futures ETFs. If the XRP spot ETF is approved, it is expected to attract $5-10 billion in funds, with XRP prices potentially breaking $3. $XRP $SUI #Xrp🔥🔥 #xrp期货etf获批 #ETF批准预期
Most people actually do not fully understand what Ethereum is, what it aims to do, and what it intends to achieve. Before understanding Ethereum, it is recommended to first learn about the development history of Ethernet, and then look at the Ethereum white paper. This way, you will have a general understanding of Ethereum rather than just understanding it.
Blockchain is mainly about decentralization, but it decentralizes the traditional industries and traditional applications, and then becomes that centralization itself. For example, Bitcoin, has Bitcoin truly been decentralized? If Bitcoin has been decentralized, then who’s centralization has it taken away? And how did Bitcoin become centralized? Now the market value of Bitcoin has surpassed Google, and the market value of Ethereum has surpassed Tencent. What was the matter in the Six Dynasties? It only became a private scheme for factions. Do lords and nobles have any kind? In the crypto circle, it remains the same. Today's crypto circle is working for two asset tags, one is Bitcoin, and the other is Ethereum; the strong remain strong. Of course, it is also working for exchanges. Binance now has a global user base of two hundred million, and the cumulative trading volume has exceeded one trillion US dollars; please note, it is one trillion US dollars. What is the most distorted thing about exchanges today? The most distorted thing is that exchanges act both as referees and players; they participate as players while also acting as referees. Under such circumstances, how can users not be pushed down and rubbed against the ground? In the past, cutting leeks was done with a sickle, but now it has been replaced with a harvester, and that harvester is the exchange. The rights to list coins on centralized exchanges must be separated in the future; only in this way can the industry develop better and healthier.
The current market has broken through 90k, how should we choose our direction next?
In the short term, Bitcoin has broken through 90k, breaking the bearish bias. If it stabilizes at this position, we can choose some promising altcoins to go long. I believe many people in the market are currently choosing to short, and any profitable positions must have a stop-loss to protect the capital.
Another is Ethereum; many friends say to blindly short Ethereum, claiming it's a way to 'pick up money.' Investment must be cautious; do not be swayed by market sentiment. If Ethereum's price exceeds 1800, ETH will go above 2000; if it's below 1800, then there’s another story. However, the likelihood of the former is very high. Don't choose to short Ethereum at this time; the risk-reward ratio is not proportional. If you're unsure, opt for meme coins on the ETH chain. Avoid coins like Andy and choose more stable tokens like SHIB. It's psychologically easier to manage when increasing positions. If you are a novice, be aware that some tokens have already peaked, and chasing after them is not appropriate. For example, Sui, Fartcoin, Popcat, CRV, Chill guy, Trump, Jasmy, Tao, Chinese tokens. Sui and Trump have also taken partial profits, while I personally would choose to skip this round for others.
Trading suggestion: You can build a position around 92k for Bitcoin, with selling pressure around 94k, targeting 97-99k. Next, mainly look for some good altcoins to build positions.
In the medium to long term, July and August should see good market conditions. The possibility of BTC reaching new highs this year is very high. For a long period ahead, going long will be the main theme, and the risk-reward ratio for shorting is relatively poor.
Lastly, regarding the market reaction to 'Trump treating altcoin holders to a meal,' there are many interpretations. But for me, the clearest signal is that we have completely entered the 'risk appetite' phase. An event that originally should not have impacted coin prices has now caused related coins to surge by 50% within an hour. The market is currently very hungry and ready to rush into altcoins blindly. Are you ready? $TRUMP$ETH$SUI
The current market has broken through 90k, how should we choose our direction next?
In the short term, Bitcoin has broken through 90k, breaking the bearish bias. If it stabilizes at this position, we can choose some promising altcoins to go long. I believe many people in the market are currently choosing to short, and any profitable positions must have a stop-loss to protect the capital.
Another is Ethereum; many friends say to blindly short Ethereum, claiming it's a way to 'pick up money.' Investment must be cautious; do not be swayed by market sentiment. If Ethereum's price exceeds 1800, ETH will go above 2000; if it's below 1800, then there’s another story. However, the likelihood of the former is very high. Don't choose to short Ethereum at this time; the risk-reward ratio is not proportional. If you're unsure, opt for meme coins on the ETH chain. Avoid coins like Andy and choose more stable tokens like SHIB. It's psychologically easier to manage when increasing positions. If you are a novice, be aware that some tokens have already peaked, and chasing after them is not appropriate. For example, Sui, Fartcoin, Popcat, CRV, Chill guy, Trump, Jasmy, Tao, Chinese tokens. Sui and Trump have also taken partial profits, while I personally would choose to skip this round for others.
Trading suggestion: You can build a position around 92k for Bitcoin, with selling pressure around 94k, targeting 97-99k. Next, mainly look for some good altcoins to build positions.
In the medium to long term, July and August should see good market conditions. The possibility of BTC reaching new highs this year is very high. For a long period ahead, going long will be the main theme, and the risk-reward ratio for shorting is relatively poor.
Lastly, regarding the market reaction to 'Trump treating altcoin holders to a meal,' there are many interpretations. But for me, the clearest signal is that we have completely entered the 'risk appetite' phase. An event that originally should not have impacted coin prices has now caused related coins to surge by 50% within an hour. The market is currently very hungry and ready to rush into altcoins blindly. Are you ready? $TRUMP$ETH$SUI
Several friends have asked me how to tell if some small-cap coins are being manipulated by a whale to 'go long' or 'go short'?
First, you need to understand why a whale will exit contracts to harvest:
1. Harvesting seeks counterparties; as long as someone wants to sell a coin, there must be someone willing to buy. Currently, in this market, no one is willing to take on the spot of mountain coins. The willingness of retail investors to buy is very low, regardless of how much it rises or falls; however, many contract traders are stubborn and willing to go short. When the whale bursts the long position, causing them to close their positions, this action is actually 'buying', effectively converting the short sellers at a high level into buying pressure.
2. The liquidity of contracts is multiple times that of spot.
3. Due to leverage, the efficiency of the whale's capital utilization is extremely high.
4. The circulating spot only needs to be controlled, while contracts can be manipulated freely.
For example, how could the previously skyrocketing OM continue to rise so much? The operation involves controlling the money in spot and then the whale opens long positions in contracts. By pushing the spot price up, they force the short positions in contracts to be liquidated, then the profits from the long contracts are used to buy more spot, creating a snowball effect, resulting in a continuously increasing market cap.
Understanding the above, when you want to know whether a coin has a whale or speculative capital at play, just look at the whale's contract positions. The main focus should be on open interest (OI) in contracts. This indicator has two aspects: one is to look at the absolute value. If a low market cap asset has a huge contract open interest, even exceeding its market cap, then there is definitely capital or a whale involved in manipulating the situation beforehand, as this was also mentioned by this toxic brother.
The second is to observe the instantaneous changes in contract open interest to catch the whale opening long and short positions in real time, and then you can ride along with the whale. Below, using Turbo and BroccoliF3B as examples, when the whale opens long and short positions, the contract open interest experiences instantaneous massive changes.
To trade contracts well in the cryptocurrency space and avoid losses, these 5 rules must be remembered.
1. Core mindset: Survival is the primary goal. 1. Respect the market, give up the fantasy of getting rich quickly. The essence of the contract market is a zero-sum game; short-term profits may come from luck, but long-term survival must rely on rationality. Never think you are the 'chosen one'; the market is always more complex than your understanding. The mentality of getting rich quickly leads people to over-leverage and trade frequently, ultimately getting swallowed by volatility. 2. Accepting losses is an inevitable cost: Losses are part of trading; no one can achieve a 100% win rate. The key is to control losses within a manageable range through stop-loss rules, avoiding catastrophic damage from a single mistake. Treat losses as tuition, not shame.
I'm a newbie in the cryptocurrency world and only have a few thousand RMB to invest. What advice do you have?
Divide your money into three parts first, and learn to feel the market first. I will tell you how to use them respectively. Keep your mind in a good place, don't think you want to make 10 times or 100 times the money right away. That's unrealistic. Part of the money is used to learn about on-chain operations such as IPOs and new listings. Many new people have added me, and the first question most of them ask is how much money can you make in the cryptocurrency circle. Really, when I heard this, I was a little speechless. In the cryptocurrency circle, there are indeed many people who have made a lot of money and achieved class crossing, but will that be you as a newbie? In fact, as a newcomer to the cryptocurrency circle, the first thing you should think about is the risk, not how much money you can make. Instead, you should think about how much money you have invested in this project. What will you do if you lose the money? Will it affect your life? How big will the impact be?