Looking at altcoins now, many second-tier coins are not like before, continuously declining; instead, their lows are gradually rising. This might be the market undergoing its final wave of consolidation.
If the market continues to slide back to the starting point of early May or even breaks below that, many people may panic and cut losses, leading to a sentiment bottom. Calculating, altcoins could still potentially drop by 15%-20%. Ethereum is currently at $2600; if it falls to $2200, that’s about a 15% drop, which aligns with the technical support level.
Bitcoin's market share might rise to 66%, which would lead to a sharper decline in altcoins. For instance, if Bitcoin drops by 7% and the total market cap decreases by 10%, altcoins might need to correct by about 13% on average. Mainstream coins like Ethereum might drop around 10%, while smaller altcoins could fall by 20%-30%. It is recommended to build positions in batches: start accumulating Ethereum around $2400;
Leave 15%-20% room for quality second-tier coins to drop; prepare for 20%-30% volatility for high-risk small coins. In summary, altcoins have a maximum downside of 15%-20%, with Ethereum's extreme support around $2200. Treat different coins differently, keep 30% cash and don't go all in. The sentiment bottom might be approaching; if the market surges directly, don’t chase the highs. Sticking to discipline is more important.
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