Greetings after a long break. Alongside the new design changes, I'm also adding some new features. We bid farewell to May with a positive move for crypto. June holds important developments, along with data and events that will shape the future of crypto. We are also entering a period where geopolitical developments will be intense. Now, let's see what lies ahead.
On June 5th, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with a 250 basis point cut likely expected. This will be followed by the G7 Leaders' Summit from June 15-17, and immediately after, the FED interest rate decision on the 18th. Apart from these, it's likely we'll experience a volatile month due to developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, peace talks, and tariffs.
I've also added daily average volatilities to the historical volatility table. I'll be using daily and weekly volatilities for my shorter-term trades. Additionally, I consider weekly and monthly data when establishing positions at the beginning of the month. I will use the daily average volatility data for leveraged trades and shorter-term option positions I take before significant news or data releases.
Bitcoin
Although BTC made a new ATH in May, we saw a more stagnant period, followed by an 8% sell-off.
For June, the monthly implied volatility is 35%, and weekly is 14.3%. This suggests a range between $68k and $141k. We've observed a decrease in BTC's volatility in recent months. On a weekly basis, with 14.3% implied volatility, we can define the price range as $90k-$121k.
The fact that the price isn't decisively moving up or down, combined with market, economic, and geopolitical uncertainties, increases the expectation of sharp bidirectional movements. However, I don't believe a top structure has formed yet, and I think any potential downward movement will remain a correction. I anticipate $98k and $93k will act as important support levels. I will take long positions if the price reaches these regions. Frankly, a direct upward move would raise some questions for me, but I would still add a small position.
For the end-of-June contracts, the max pain price is $100k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.60, painting a very bullish picture. With the recent decrease in volatility, DVOL has dropped to 42% today. The Funding Rate has been at 0 for a while; if it turns negative during any potential correction, that would be one of the biggest bullish signals for me. For the June 6th weekly contract, the max pain price is $105k, and the Put/Call Ratio is 0.75, indicating a somewhat bullish sentiment. It's also worth noting that there's significant volume in the June contracts.
Ethereum
ETH, which closed May with 58% volatility, has been moving sideways for the past three weeks after its rise in the first week. This accumulation below resistance is making those who have lost hope anxious, similar to the situation with BTC. This raises the question: if the price corrects downwards, will we see panic selling, or will it surge sharply without any correction, leaving behind those who missed the initial rise and are waiting to buy?
The monthly average implied volatility for June is 40%, corresponding to the $1500-$3550 region. The weekly average implied volatility is 20%, equating to the $2030-$3050 range. We've seen a significant increase in ETH's volatility over recent months, and it continues to rise.
In April, despite a very sharp drop, ETH quickly recovered, saving its candle structure from a bearish outlook. In May, it sent a clear "I'm not dead yet" message with a strong rally. While many who were pessimistic about altcoins have regained hope, those who missed the buying opportunity are now waiting for a correction. I'm inclined to be a buyer on pullbacks to the $2350 region and below. The $2100-$2200 zone, in particular, is a very good area for positioning. I plan to position for the end of June and July with incremental buys on pullbacks to this area. The important points on my charts have been fixed for months. One of them is the red line 2500 and the blue box in the 2800-2900 area. As I mentioned before, it is not right to dream too much before these areas are completely broken. We still have not seen a good weekly close above 2500. For this reason, I will start positioning upwards in the correction that will come with the new month. The 2300-2100 areas will be my buy points for upward positions. This is my general plan.
For June contracts, the market has a very bullish expectation with a 0.48 Put/Call Ratio, and there's active, high-volume buying of end-of-June contracts. The max pain price for the end of June is $2200, and for June 6th, it's $2600. The P/C Ratio for the June 6th contract is 0.62, again showing a bullish picture.
I believe it would be better for the price to form a clear bottom structure and then rise in a V-shape. While a move back towards the 0.021 region wouldn't be surprising, I don't expect it to make a new low. In my opinion, it shouldn't dip below the 0.021 region. My conviction that the uptrend in this pair will truly begin will be solidified if it stays above 0.026. 0.033 is an important resistance, and after sustaining above it, I think the 0.04 region will be our main resistance. Sharp rises are likely above this region. But first things first.
Conclusion
Historically, Bitcoin has closed June in the red 6 times and in the green 6 times. ETH, on the other hand, has only closed green 3 times and red 6 times, often with sharp sell-offs. Currently, Q2 data shows $BTC has provided a 26% return, and $ETH 39%. Let's see how we'll close this month with the upcoming developments.
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