We've left another week behind us, full of up-and-down moves that ultimately closed right where it opened. We're navigating a period of heightened risk, from the Trump-Elon saga last week to the Israel-Iran conflicts this week. We have now entered a week expected to have high risk and volatility, driven by the G7 summit, interest rate decisions, the Iran-Israel conflict, and key data releases.

Bitcoin

During the price's move towards a new ATH, another sell-off occurred from the $110k region. However, it quickly recovered from the $102k area and pushed back above the monthly open. Today, it has once again moved towards the $110k region with another rally.

Although I expect a new ATH this week, my expectation for an ATH within this month continues due to the anticipated risks. I believe it will continue its back-and-forth movements within this range until the first week of July. Therefore, I don't anticipate any extreme upward or downward moves. This week's implied volatility range is between $90k and $121k. On the monthly chart, the highs and lows of previous weeks have still not been breached.

While the DVOL continues to decline, the ratio of put contracts in the month-end options has further increased, with the Put/Call Ratio at 0.66, and no change in the max pain level. For June 20th, the Put/Call Ratio paints a bearish picture at 1.13. The max pain price is $105k.

Ethereum

After making a move above $2800 and failing again, ETH experienced another pullback to the $2500 level. Despite this week's risks, crypto, which saw only a limited decline, continued its ascent today.

In contrast to BTC, I expect a somewhat slower movement from ETH. I believe ETH will proceed more cautiously while BTC maintains its dominance. Although another test of the blue box is likely, it's wise to approach with caution. The weekly implied volatility is in the $2040-$3060 range. I think ETH needs to close the month above at least $2600, and above $2800 for a bullish outlook.

The DVOL for ETH continues to rise. While bullish positioning persists, the market expects a rally this week as well, with a weekly P/C Ratio of 0.66. The Max Pain Price is at $2600, the area where it has been stuck for several weeks.

ETH/BTC

Nothing has changed here; it continues to make lower highs and higher lows. I don't think it's necessary to take any risks until a breakout occurs. From a High Time Frame (HTF) perspective, a move to 0.030 followed by a retest of 0.027 could offer a good entry point. A sustained hold above 0.026 could also be traded for a move towards 0.030.

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