The 2008-2009 global financial crisis led many to lose trust in the traditional banking system. It was during this time that a mysterious figure using the pseudonym 'Satoshi Nakamoto' released the Bitcoin white paper (peer-to-peer electronic cash system) on October 31, 2008. This document proposed the concept of decentralized currency without a central bank and successfully mined the first 'genesis block' on January 3, 2009, embedding the (Times) headline 'Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks' as a 'taunt' against traditional finance.
Thus, Bitcoin was born: a new type of digital currency with no central issuing authority and not controlled by a single government. By the way, in 2010, a programmer used 10,000 Bitcoins to buy two pizzas, which were worth only about $40 at the time—today, the 'cost' of those two pizzas has approached $400 million, illustrating how humble and nameless Bitcoin was at its inception.
Research Report: From Pizza to a New Global Financial Order
Research Perspective: The Intersection of Technological Underpinnings, Monetary Status, and Social Acceptance
1️⃣ Research Background and Core Issues
Since Bitcoin (BTC) was introduced in 2009, it has gradually evolved from a technical experiment to a global digital asset. This transformation has raised three key questions:
Technological and Economic Mechanisms: How do Bitcoin's security and scarcity as an open-source network maintain synergy in technology and economic incentives?
Monetary Functions and Social Perception: How does Bitcoin perform in terms of transaction medium, store of value, and unit of account? Does its social acceptance have sustainability?
Policy Game and Future Outlook: How will Bitcoin's development space as an 'asset-like' and 'currency-like' evolve under different global regulatory attitudes?
This research report focuses on Bitcoin's underlying mechanisms, user data, and market landscape, exploring the potential role of Bitcoin in the future global financial system in conjunction with the macro environment and social acceptance.
2️⃣ Technological Economic Mechanism: Security, Scarcity, and Scalability
🔍 Security of Blockchain and PoW
Bitcoin employs the SHA-256 hashing algorithm and proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to ensure the immutability of the transaction ledger. Although facing early controversies over hash rate centralization, data shows that as of June 2025, Bitcoin's hash rate exceeds 650 EH/s (Exahash/second), with an annual growth of approximately 35%, distributed across hundreds of mining farms globally, technically exhibiting a trend of both anti-censorship and anti-tampering.
📝 Independent Thinking: Although there is a 'mining pool oligopoly' phenomenon in hash rate concentration, from an anti-censorship perspective, geographical diversity and equipment diversity form a layer of defense. Bitcoin's decentralization is not 'one node per person,' but rather 'globally impossible to block all at once.'
🔍 Scarcity and Incentive Models
The monetary supply limit of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, and the halving mechanism creates scarcity. Compared to the unlimited issuance of fiat currencies, this setup is viewed by some institutions and individuals as an 'anti-inflation hedge tool.' Currently (June 2025), 93% of Bitcoin has been mined, and secondary market trading dominates the circulation and pricing of Bitcoin.
However, it is essential to be cautious: Does the scarcity of Bitcoin's supply necessarily lead to price rigidity? From an economic perspective, demand is an equally important variable. The gradual reduction of block rewards means that security relies on transaction fees for support. Currently, the average transaction fee is about $1-3 (on-chain), which has risen 3-5 times since 2019, reflecting the game between security and scalability.
🔍 Technological Expansion and Challenges
The TPS of Bitcoin's main chain remains around 7 transactions, unable to support high-frequency trading. The Lightning Network, as a second-layer expansion, has surpassed a capacity of 7000 BTC, but mainstream retail payments still mainly focus on small-scale scenarios. The scalability shortfall somewhat limits Bitcoin's potential substitute role as 'daily currency.'
3️⃣ Social Acceptance: From Speculative Tool to Safe-Haven Asset?
📊 Data Insights: Trading and User Behavior
According to on-chain data from Glassnode and Chainalysis, the growth of active Bitcoin addresses has slowed in the past five years, with the growth rate of monthly active users dropping from an annual average of 30% to less than 10%. Meanwhile, the custody volume off-chain (centralized exchanges) has risen, with over 3.3 million BTC in exchange accounts by June 2025, indicating that 'users are increasingly viewing it as an asset store rather than a means of daily payment.'
📝 My Personal Analysis: The social perception of Bitcoin is gradually shifting from 'currency experiment' to 'digital gold' narrative. Retail users treat it as a long-term store of value rather than frequent circulation. This form is closer to gold or real estate rather than the 'medium of exchange' attribute of fiat currencies.
📊 ETFs and Institutional Allocation
Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024 (by the US SEC, etc.), the institutional allocation ratio has increased from 1-2% to 3-5%. Although still below the traditional gold allocation level (approximately 7% globally), it reflects the preliminary path of Bitcoin's financialization.
This means that in the future, Bitcoin price fluctuations may be more influenced by macro risk appetite and interest rate expectations, rather than solely by technical factors or retail behavior.
4️⃣ Policy and International Landscape: Compliance Game
🌐 Divergence in Regulatory Attitudes
United States: Treating Bitcoin as a commodity (CFTC regulation), approval of spot ETFs promotes the growth of a compliant market;
European Union: The MiCA Act will take effect in 2024, providing a legal framework for custodians and exchanges, but detailed rules still need to be implemented;
Some Asian Markets: Japan and Singapore adopt neutral regulatory compliance, encouraging financialization; Mainland China has completely banned trading platforms, but on-chain over-the-counter trading remains active.
📝 Research Thoughts: The global Bitcoin market has shown a 'dual-track system'—compliance (US, EU, Japan, etc.) and gray markets (some emerging economies). This not only affects Bitcoin's liquidity but may also give rise to premium or discount phenomena in the future 'offshore Bitcoin market.'
5️⃣ Future Outlook and Key Variables
Combining data and industry trends, I believe Bitcoin's future opportunities and challenges mainly focus on three areas:
✅ Financialization and Institutional Demand: The increase in ETF and institutional allocation ratios may strengthen its position as 'digital gold,' leading to a rise in the price center.
✅ Macroeconomic Variables: Global monetary easing or tightening cycles determine the flow of Bitcoin funds. Historically, BTC has performed better during periods of Federal Reserve easing than during tightening, and this will continue to dominate in the future.
✅ Technology and Sustainability: The Lightning Network, sidechains, and potential environmental pressures (energy consumption disputes) may reshape Bitcoin's use cases and social support.
6️⃣ Conclusion: Bitcoin's 'Multiple Roles' and Market Trends
Conclusion 1: Bitcoin has transcended being merely a payment method and is closer to a global 'store of value and safe-haven asset.'
Conclusion 2: The Bitcoin network itself faces questions of scalability and environmental sustainability, with second-layer solutions being a key direction.
Conclusion 3: The trend towards institutionalization is increasing Bitcoin's weight in global investment portfolios, but it also strengthens its 'risk asset' attribute (affected by macro fluctuations).
From a research perspective, Bitcoin's evolution is a game of multiple forces: technological innovation, economic incentives, social narratives, and policy regulation. In the future, Bitcoin's market trends and compliance paths may jointly shape its new role in the global financial system.
🔧 Appendix: Future Research Ideas
1️⃣ Quantitative Model of On-chain and Off-chain Bitcoin Capital Flow (ETFs vs OTC).
2️⃣ Security Sustainability Backtesting Based on Miner Revenue Curve.
3️⃣ Dynamic Factor Analysis (VAR Model) Combining Federal Reserve Interest Rate Data and Bitcoin Prices.
