#BTC Long-term holders have achieved a historical record in market value!
Macro interpretation: Today's closed-door meeting between the U.S. SEC and organizations like Nasdaq and Plume Network has released key signals: regulators are beginning to recognize the compliance path for public chain tokenization. In this discussion, termed 'regulatory mode shift' by crypto practitioners, three core proposals have emerged—Nasdaq proposed establishing a new trading venue called 'ATS-Digital' to allow the mixed listing of digital assets and traditional commodity tokens; Plume Network aims to adapt securities law provisions to the DeFi ecosystem; Etherealize promotes the legal status of blockchain technology in shareholder registration systems. Although parties did not challenge the SEC's investor protection principles, the introduction of a modular rule framework and phased testing mechanism marks the first systematic acceptance by regulators of the technical characteristics of the crypto market.
The warmth of regulatory thaw has not yet fully transmitted to the market, but the huge waves of institutional funds have already stirred ripples. Latest data from Bank of America shows a net inflow of $2.3 billion into the crypto market in a single week, setting a historical peak, while BlackRock's IBIT has seen a record of 30 consecutive days of net inflow, highlighting the traditional asset management giants' determination to position themselves. This capital siphoning effect is particularly pronounced in the derivatives market: the skewness indicator for Bitcoin options has plummeted to -10%, and the implied volatility premium for call options has reached new highs since the bull market of 2021. Some market analysts warn that such extreme states often indicate short-term pullback risks, but events like Japan's Metaplanet company increasing its Bitcoin holdings by $104 million and Michigan's crypto-friendly legislation are building a solid value support.
On-chain data reveals a deeper capital game. CoinAnk data monitoring shows that 99% of Bitcoin UTXOs are in profit; such historical levels of holding gains should have triggered massive sell-offs, but instead, what is seen is that long-term holders (LTH) have achieved a market value surpassing $28 billion. During the volatility when Bitcoin's price dropped below $109,000, short-term leveraged traders faced a liquidation wave, while the proportion of long-term holders' positions rose against the trend to 63.7%. This 'de-retailization' trend contrasts interestingly with the divergence from the miners' revenue curve: current daily miner income stabilizes at $50 million, which, although down 37.5% from historical peaks, suggests that the miner community is using financial instruments to hedge volatility risk.
Behind the evolution of market structure, macro variables are quietly changing the rules of the game. The significant pullback of some altcoins on the eve of the core PCE data release reveals the fragile link between crypto assets and traditional financial markets. Although fund flows in the Nasdaq ETF tend to be cautious, the daily average of $350 million in Bitcoin spot ETF funds is reshaping the asset correlation matrix. Even more intriguing is the exposure of Trump Media Technology Group's $3 billion cryptocurrency investment plan, which, despite being refuted, suggests that the convergence of political power and crypto capital may give rise to new dimensions of regulatory gamesmanship.
At the current observation point, the resilience test of Bitcoin has entered a critical phase. The Alpha report reveals that since breaking through the historical high of $111,800, the market has achieved a net capital growth curve maintaining a 45-degree upward angle, with short-term holders' cost basis firmly above $95,000. This strong technical position creates a delicate balance with the derivatives market's unrealized profits reaching $11.4 billion, where any macro black swan could trigger a profit-taking wave. However, the on-chain chip distribution chart indicates that over 72% of the circulating supply is controlled by wallets that have held for more than one year, significantly compressing the price downside potential due to the 'diamond hands' effect.
Looking ahead to the third quarter, the crypto market may face an ultimate showdown between bulls and bears. The progress of the regulatory sandbox mechanism, the Fed's interest rate policy turning point, and the policy game in the U.S. constitute three variables influencing the market. It is worth noting that the implied volatility surface in the options market shows a 'smile curve' characteristic, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in tail risk. For rational investors, utilizing tools such as the volatility index (DVOL) to hedge risks may be more strategically valuable than merely directional betting, given the dual support from the ETF funding floor effect and miners' cost basis.
As Wall Street incorporates Bitcoin into the 'global liquidity barometer' observation framework, this digital asset, born only a decade ago, is completing its metamorphosis into a mature financial instrument. From the SEC's regulatory sandbox to Metaplanet's balance sheet revolution, from miners' computational power games to volatility trading in the options market, the complexity of the crypto ecosystem has far surpassed early speculators' imagination. This journey of value discovery, driven by regulatory breakthroughs, institutional entry, and on-chain games, will ultimately test whether Bitcoin can make the perilous leap from 'belief asset' to 'reserve asset.'