This week's highlights:
May 26: #Binance Alpha launches Huma Finance (HUMA) airdrop;
May 27: The 2025 Bitcoin Conference (#Bitcoin2025 ) will be held in Las Vegas from May 27 to 29;
May 28: U.S. Vice President Vance will speak at the 'Bitcoin 2025' conference;
Sophon: May 28 TGE, 57% of tokens belong to the community, of which 9% are used for airdrops;
May 30: #FTX will begin distributing over $5 billion to creditors according to the bankruptcy plan;
June 1: Trump originally suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1; (The latest news is that Trump agreed to extend the tariff deadline on the EU to July 9).
CoinAnk data indicates that many Federal Reserve officials will also speak from Monday to Friday.
We believe that this week, the Bitcoin 2025 conference and policy signals: U.S. Vice President Vance's attendance and speech mark the first time a senior U.S. official has spoken at a mainstream crypto conference, which may release a policy-friendly signal. Coupled with the recent passage of the U.S. 'GENIUS Stablecoin Act' and the improvement of regulations in Hong Kong, the trend towards policy compliance may further boost market confidence. However, we must be cautious if the speech content does not meet expectations, as it could trigger short-term volatility.
On May 30, FTX will initiate the distribution of $5 billion, but the dispute over creditors' demands for compensation in cryptocurrency rather than cash remains unresolved. Although the compensation amount exceeds expectations (119% of the debt value), if creditors choose to convert cash into crypto assets, it may exacerbate market selling pressure, similar to the risks of declines triggered by small compensations in February 2025.
Project updates: Binance Alpha launches HUMA airdrop (5% token distribution) and Sophon's TGE (9% airdrop) will attract short-term speculative funds, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure after concentrated token releases. Additionally, platforms like Binance are binding users through point mechanisms, which may enhance user stickiness and indirectly support market activity.
In terms of market impact, positive factors include policy expectations from the Bitcoin conference, continued accumulation by institutions (corporate purchases exceeding new supply by three times), and compliance progress, which may support Bitcoin prices in a high-level consolidation.
Risk points include potential selling pressure from large FTX compensations, lingering uncertainties after the delay of Trump's tariff policy, and the possibility that if Federal Reserve officials speak in a hawkish tone, it may suppress risk appetite.
