This week's preview (5.26-6.1), the 2025 #比特币大会 is approaching, with a record weekly trading volume of $25 billion for ETFs!
Directory:
1. This week's large token unlocking data;
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/funds in sectors;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;
4. #BTC Liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events this week and important previews and interpretations of the crypto market.
1. This week's large token unlocking data;
Coinank data shows that this week, SUI, OP, ZETA, and others will face a large one-time token unlocking, among which:
Optimism (OP) will unlock about 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on May 31, accounting for 1.83% of the current circulation, worth approximately $23.33 million;
Sui (SUI) will unlock about 44 million tokens at 8 AM on June 1, accounting for 1.32% of the current circulation, worth approximately $158 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock about 44.26 million tokens at 8 AM on June 1, accounting for 5.34% of the current circulation, worth approximately $11.34 million;
DYDX (DYDX) will unlock about 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on June 1, accounting for 1.07% of the current circulation, worth approximately $5.06 million.
We believe that this week, multiple large unlocking events of mainstream tokens will bring short-term disturbances to the market supply and demand relationship. Among these, Sui (SUI) has the highest unlocking amount, reaching $158 million, but it only accounts for 1.32% of the circulation, indicating that SUI has a large circulation base, which may dilute the marginal impact of a single unlock. In contrast, ZETA's unlocking amount accounts for 5.34% of the circulation, significantly higher than that of other projects, and considering its smaller market cap, the token may face greater selling pressure after release.
Historically, such unlocks are often accompanied by price volatility. For example, when OP unlocked in February 2024, it accounted for 1.93% of the circulation, with a higher market cap share, while this time the proportion has decreased to 1.83%, reflecting that the expansion of its circulation has diluted the impact of a single unlock. Additionally, project parties may counteract market sentiment through the release of ecological progress and other positive factors; for instance, OP as a leading Layer 2 project may increase on-chain activity or attract funds to absorb selling pressure. DYDX, as a decentralized derivatives protocol, has seen recent trading volume growth that may alleviate liquidity pressure from unlocking.
It is worth noting that high-value unlocking tokens (such as SUI), if lacking sufficient market buying support, have a higher probability of short-term price correction, but long-term trends still depend on the project's fundamentals. Investors are advised to comprehensively assess risks by considering project ecological progress, market liquidity, and unlocking subjects (team/institution/community) among other factors.
2. Overview of the crypto market, quick read on the weekly rise and fall of popular coins/funds in sectors
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market segmented by concept sectors, the Optimism ecosystem, Arbitrum ecosystem, Binance Smart Chain, fan tokens, and other sectors achieved net inflows.
In the last 7 days, the list of top-performing tokens is as follows (selected from the top 500 by market cap), LISTA, DOG, HYPE, ZEC, and SPX tokens have performed relatively well, and this week, strong tokens should continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $2.75 billion, including: BlackRock IBIT: +$2.432 billion; Fidelity FBTC: +$209.9 million; Bitwise BITB: +$42.3 million; ARK ARKB: +$101 million; Invesco BTCO: -$5.3 million; VanEck HODL: +$31.2 million; Grayscale GBTC: -$89.2 million; Grayscale Mini BTC: +$28.3 million.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the highest weekly trading volume since 2025, with a total trading volume of $25 billion and a net inflow of $2.75 billion, marking the second highest weekly net inflow for this type of product since its launch in early 2024. BlackRock's IBIT currently holds 3.3% of the global Bitcoin supply, with net assets exceeding $71 billion, about three times that of the second-ranked Fidelity FBTC. During the same period, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was approximately $250 million, reaching the highest level since early February, although trading volume saw a slight decline.
The cumulative net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF reached $44.499 billion, setting a new historical high.
We believe that last week's net inflow of $2.75 billion into the US Bitcoin spot ETF set the second highest weekly net inflow since its launch in early 2024, and the cumulative net inflow exceeded $44.499 billion, a historical high, reflecting investors' continued favor for cryptocurrency assets.
The weekly trading volume of Bitcoin ETFs reached $25 billion, the highest level in 2025, with increased liquidity further consolidating its status as a mainstream financial product. At the same time, the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs was $250 million, reaching a new high since early February, indicating that funds are spreading from Bitcoin to other crypto assets, but the decline in Ethereum's trading volume may reflect that the market still anchors on Bitcoin.
Although ETF demand is strong (purchase volume is six times the miners' output), new accounting standards require companies to adjust the valuation of Bitcoin assets at market price, which may trigger financial report risks if prices fluctuate significantly. Additionally, the monopoly of giants like BlackRock may squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized institutions, necessitating attention to regulatory potential interventions in market concentration. Current data confirms the deepening of cryptocurrency as an asset class, but structural differentiation and external risks still need vigilance.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks above $115,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $7.978 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $102,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $10.576 billion.
We believe that the current liquidation threshold in the Bitcoin market has significantly shifted upwards, reflecting a simultaneous increase in market leverage and price volatility. Current data compared to earlier data (such as the $104,000 breakthrough in January 2025 corresponding to a short position of $538 million, and the $88,000 breakthrough in March 2025 corresponding to a short position of $842 million) shows that the current liquidation scale is exhibiting exponential growth, indicating a continuous expansion of market risk exposure.
Liquidation intensity does not reflect the actual amount to be liquidated, but reflects the potential intensity of liquidity shocks when prices reach critical points. High-intensity short liquidations may trigger a 'short squeeze,' driving prices up rapidly; conversely, long liquidations may trigger panic selling, forming a negative feedback loop. It is noteworthy that the current long liquidation intensity ($10.576 billion) far exceeds that of shorts ($7.978 billion), suggesting that there is a dense accumulation of long positions in the $102,000-$115,000 range, and the risk of price decline is more concentrated.
This market structure may stem from institutional investors' strong expectations for breaking historical highs, but high-leverage operations also exacerbate systemic risks. Researchers recommend paying attention to liquidity exhaustion risks after price threshold breakthroughs, as well as the amplification effect of cross-exchange position distribution on liquidation waves. Current data highlights that Bitcoin is shifting from an asset volatility phase to a high-leverage gaming phase, and market participants need to be wary of nonlinear volatility under extreme conditions.
5. Key macro events this week and important previews and interpretations of the crypto market.
CoinAnk data shows that on May 26: Binance Alpha will launch the Huma Finance (HUMA) airdrop;
May 27: The 2025 Bitcoin Conference will be held in Las Vegas from May 27 to 29;
On May 28: US Vice President Vance will speak at the 'Bitcoin 2025' conference;
Sophon: TGE on May 28, with 57% of the tokens belonging to the community, of which 9% are for airdrop;
On May 30: FTX will start distributing over $5 billion to creditors according to the bankruptcy plan;
June 1: Trump originally suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1; (the latest news is that Trump agreed to extend the tariff deadline on the EU to July 9).
Numerous Federal Reserve officials will also give speeches from Monday to Friday.
We believe that this week's macro events in the crypto market mainly revolve around policy dynamics, industry conferences, and project progress, which may have multidimensional impacts on market sentiment and fund flows.
Bitcoin 2025 conference and policy signals: US Vice President Vance's attendance and speech marks the first time a senior US official has spoken at a mainstream crypto conference, which may release policy-friendly signals. Coupled with the recent passage of the US (GENIUS stablecoin bill) and improvements in Hong Kong's regulations, the trend toward policy compliance may further boost market confidence. However, it should be noted that if the speech content does not meet expectations, it may trigger short-term volatility.
FTX payouts and liquidity pressure: On May 30, FTX initiated a $5 billion fund distribution, but the dispute over creditors' demands for cryptocurrency physical payouts rather than cash remains unresolved. Although the payout amount exceeds expectations (119% of creditor value), if creditors choose to convert cash into crypto assets, it may exacerbate market selling pressure, similar to the drop risk triggered by small payouts in February 2025 that warrants attention.
Project dynamics: Binance Alpha launching HUMA airdrop (5% token allocation) and Sophon's TGE (9% airdrop) will attract short-term speculative funds, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure after concentrated token releases. In addition, platforms like Binance may enhance user stickiness and indirectly support market activity through a points mechanism.
In terms of market impact, positive factors include policy expectations from the Bitcoin conference, continued institutional accumulation (corporate purchases exceed new supply by three times), and regulatory progress, which may support Bitcoin's price in a high-level consolidation.
Risk points include potential selling pressure from large FTX payouts, uncertainty remaining after the postponement of Trump's tariff policy, and the possibility that hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials may suppress risk appetite.