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#### 🌍 Current Situation
1. Price: 105,291 USDT (+0.09%) – Near all-time high (**109,114 USDT**).
2. Dominance: 62% of the crypto market (highest level in years).
3. Daily Volume: 52.29 billion dollars (relatively low compared to market cap → only 2.5%).
4. Supply: 19.87M BTC traded out of 21M (rare at 94.6%).
5. Flows: Whales bought 16,552 BTC against selling 1,049 BTC (clear buying dominance).
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#### 🔍 Smart Money Movement Analysis (3 Critical Signals)
1. Institutional Accumulation:
- 21,716 BTC purchased in large orders (confidence signal in the rise).
- 1,931 BTC sold in just 24 hours (weak compared to buying).
2. Strong Demand Levels:
- 3,842 BTC medium-sized buy orders (support at 104,000-105,000).
3. Volume/Market Cap Ratio (2.5%):
- Indicates calm before the storm (Expect a big move soon).
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#### 🎯 Trading Strategies (Based on Data)
| Target | Entry | Stop | First Target | Second Target | Risk |
|------------------|---------------------|-----------------|------------------|-------------------|--------------|
| Quick Speculation | above 105,500 | below 104,800 | 107,000 | 109,114 (ATH) | Medium |
| Long Buy | at 104,000 | below 103,000 | 110,000+ | 120,000 | Low |
| Hedging Sell | if breaks below 103,000 | above 104,000 | 100,000 | 95,000 | High |
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#### ⚡ Predictions (based on clear probabilities)
1. Bullish Scenario (60% probability):
- Breaking 105,500 → Accelerating towards 109,114 (all-time high) then 120,000.
- Driver: Institutional adoption + supply shortage.
2. Sideways Scenario (30% probability):
- Trading between 104,000-107,000 for weeks (accumulation before the 2024 halving).
3. Bearish Scenario (10% probability):
- Breaking below 103,000 → Correction to 100,000 (strong psychological support).
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#### 💎 Smart Notes (From Market Experience)
- Historical Timing:
- BTC usually peaks 12-18 months after the halving (last halving was April 2024 → Expected rise until 2025).
- Scarcity Indicator (S2F):
- BTC is now scarcer than gold (S2F ratio ≈ 56 compared to 60 for gold).
- Warning:
- The leverage ratio is high in the market (**36.93%** volatility in 4 hours) → Avoid high leverage currently.
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Summary:
- Beginners: Buy at 104,000-105,000 with a stop loss at 103,000 (safe long-term investment).
- Professionals: Speculate on a break above 105,500 or partial sell at 109,114.
- The boldest: Waiting for 100,000 to enter forcefully if the market drops.
> "BTC is not just an asset... it is insurance against a failed financial system" – Invest according to this mindset.