#### 1. Current situation (quick summary)
- Price: 2,477 USDT (slight drop ~0.83%).
- Daily volume: 25 billion USD (acceptable but not strong compared to market cap).
- Liquidity: large flows indicate institutional activity (73K ETH bought at specific points).
---
#### 2. What’s happening behind the scenes (important details)
- Large flows:
- 50K ETH bought by major investors in the last 5 days (silent accumulation signal).
- 444K ETH sold against 456K ETH bought (balance with a slight buying bias).
- Short indicators:
- Today: volatility in 4-hour/hour periods (no clear direction, waiting for a break of 2,500 or drop below 2,450).
- Critical points:
- 30.99% potential increase if resistance is broken.
- 16.30% risk of a drop if support is breached.
---
#### 3. Why ETH? (Fundamental aspects)
- Market cap: 299 billion USD (second largest currency after Bitcoin).
- Supply: no cap (inflation fears but currently not impactful due to burning part of the fees).
- Historically:
- Highest price: 4,891 USD (currently at ~50% of it).
- Lowest price: 0.42 USD (up 589,000% since 2020!).
---
#### 4. Recommendations (by personality)
- Long-term wallets (HODL):
- Buy at 2,400-2,450 (historical strong support).
- First target: 3,000 USD (if it breaks 2,500 with higher trading volume).
- Day traders:
- Enter at a break of 2,480 with volume confirmation (quick target: 2,520).
- Stop loss: below 2,450 (avoid sharp fluctuations).
- Caution:
- Avoid high leverage currently (unstable environment at 16.3%).
---
#### 5. Forecasts (3 realistic scenarios)
1. Optimistic scenario (30% probability):
- Break of 2,500 → recovery to 2,800-3,000 (especially with increased trading volume).
2. Neutral scenario (50% probability):
- Continued trading between 2,450-2,500 (accumulation before a big move).
3. Bearish scenario (20% probability):
- Break of 2,450 → drop to 2,300 (major support).
---
#### 6. Smart observation (based on data)
- Timing:
- ETH usually shows strong movements at the end of the third quarter (July-September) due to network updates.
- Institutions:
- Large flows indicate readiness for an upward move, but with short-term fluctuations.
---
Summary:
ETH is a strong currency with good fundamentals, but it needs patience. Day traders can exploit the current range, while long-term holders buy at support. The key: watch for a break of 2,500 or 2,450 for the next signal.