Yesterday, the U.S. stock market dropped after opening, but surprisingly closed in the green, stabilizing in the short term.
This morning, Bitcoin continued to lead the charge, standing at $106,000, showing strong performance. From the perspective of Bitcoin's resistance level, $108,000 is the first resistance level above; if it breaks, the next target will be the historical high of $110,000!
If Bitcoin fails to rally and experiences a pullback, the short-term support level is at $102,000. From the distribution of chips, the range between $93,000 and $98,000 is the largest holding area, where 2.43 million Bitcoins are stored, considered the first line of defense.
However, recently MicroStrategy has been crazily buying Bitcoin, providing significant support for short-term prices. This company has gone crazy buying coins this year, accounting for 77% of corporate net purchases! From May 12 to May 18, they spent another $764 million to buy 7,390 Bitcoins at an average price of $103,500.
Now they hold 576,000 coins, with an average cost of only $70,000, making a fortune. From the exchange data, as prices rise, the Bitcoin supply not only hasn’t increased but has actually decreased.
This indicates that more and more investors are withdrawing coins from exchanges, showing confidence in Bitcoin's future trends. From the Bitcoin turnover rate, although the turnover rate has increased compared to the weekend, the increase is not large.
Short-term investors are the main force in trading, while early investors are still sitting tight, generally optimistic about BTC's rise and not in a hurry to sell. But if you're not very sensitive to macroeconomics, Trump's latest moves, or monetary policy issues.
The current market is too easily led by major events. Trump tweets, and the U.S. stock market might crash by 20%. Another tweet, and it could rise by 20% again. Who can predict such volatility? Probably only Trump himself knows! Data also shows that in the first half of this year, the market fluctuated wildly, and 250,000 Bitcoins held by retail investors were wiped out, while large investors quietly bought the dip.
Currently, the uncertainty in macroeconomics, politics, and monetary policy is too high, and no one can accurately predict the next trend.
However, in the medium to long term, it is still the honeymoon period for tariff policies, and the game of monetary policy continues. The market will next focus on the Fed's dot plot in June and whether the tariff policy will pause or escalate in July.
It’s also crucial whether Trump can reach an agreement with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. If he wants Powell to cut interest rates, he either needs to crash the economy or compromise on tariff issues. Currently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has also exceeded 4.5%, and Trump is probably very anxious.
To make matters worse, Moody's suddenly downgraded the U.S. credit rating, hitting him hard.
In the past, during Obama and Biden's terms, there were also downgrades, but they could shift the blame to the Democrats. This time, the market clearly feels that Trump is a bit out of control, so Moody's stepped in. The day before yesterday, Treasury Secretary Basant confidently said that GDP growth could exceed the debt growth rate and that tariffs could fill the treasury, but the market seems not to buy it.
The current market is like dancing on stilts, worrying about a rating collapse while pretending everything is stable. Next, we’ll see what new tricks Trump can pull...
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