Market liquidity was average over the weekend, but last night Bitcoin suddenly led the charge, reaching 107,000 USD, just a step away from a new high.
Ethereum followed closely, also surpassing 2,580 USD, and altcoins experienced a wave of gains, indicating that funds are returning to the crypto market.
Although Moody's gave a credit rating to the United States yesterday, causing some panic in the market.
But so far, it hasn't significantly affected Bitcoin, because BTC is decentralized, and credit ratings mainly impact traditional finance; BTC prices are more influenced by supply and demand and market sentiment.
The market's fear and greed index remains stable at 71, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable.
Meanwhile, Trump has also been busy stirring the pot, urging Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut rates quickly on one hand, and asking Walmart not to raise prices while also absorbing tariff costs on Chinese goods.
In 2024, Walmart's net profit margin is only 2.5%. If they bear a 10% tariff, profits could be directly halved by 60%!
Walmart either has to raise prices against requirements, or lay off employees or shift production lines, which will affect both the supply chain and stock prices.
This policy of wanting low inflation while not allowing price increases has left U.S. stock investors confused.
Now everyone is guessing when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates?
Currently, there are two possibilities:
If the economy significantly declines in 2025, the Federal Reserve may cut rates more than twice a year to stimulate the economy.
But if the U.S. economy is doing well, the Federal Reserve may only cut rates 1-2 times, or even less, to control inflation.
The key date is the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 18, where Powell will release the dot plot, hinting at the number of rate cuts for the year.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is only 8.3%, 34.2% in July, and rises to 51.5% in September, indicating that the market generally expects a rate cut only in September.
From on-chain data, BTC's chip distribution is very stable, with 93,000-98,000 USD being the largest holding range, accumulating 2.44 million Bitcoins.
If BTC fails to rally and experiences a pullback, 102,000 USD is the short-term support, with 93,000-98,000 as the first line of defense.
Additionally, on May 16, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 260 million USD, continuing three days of net inflow.
A giant whale address also purchased 226 million USD worth of Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, also released a Bitcoin tracker, indicating that institutions and large holders are still buying Bitcoin at the bottom, which will have a certain upward effect on Bitcoin's short-term price.
Next, we can pay attention to the market trends after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
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