Bitcoin is still performing strongly, recently reaching around $107,000 again, just a step away from its historical high.
In the past week, there hasn't been much significant macro data in the market. Market sentiment has mainly been driven by a few factors: Will Trump make any big moves? Will the China-US trade situation ease? Are there any signs of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? These could continue to push up Bitcoin prices.
It is worth noting that the support for the crypto market in the United States has been increasing! Arizona, New Hampshire, and Texas have passed the (Bitcoin Reserve Act), in addition to the (Stablecoin Act) that was preliminarily passed yesterday. Once the bills are passed, the rules will be clearer, and the issuance of stablecoins may surge, attracting more funds into the crypto market, increasing liquidity, which is a long-term positive for the crypto space.
This also indicates that the U.S. is accelerating the standardization and scaling of the crypto industry. Policies lead the way, and legislation provides support, which is necessary for an industry to grow stronger; these bills are clear signals.
Additionally, it is important to note that several Federal Reserve officials have recently stated that they will not adjust interest rates in the short term, and interest rate cuts are unlikely in June and July. They are still observing the impact of tariffs on inflation, whether it is a one-time shock or a long-term issue. The market is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting on June 18, where Powell will release the dot plot, revealing the number of rate cuts for the year.
According to the CME Federal Reserve observation tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is only 8.6%, 30.8% in July, and rises to 51.3% in September. The market generally expects that a rate cut may only happen in September.
From the turnover of Bitcoin, as the price of Bitcoin rises, the turnover rate is indeed increasing. In recent days, short-term investors who bottom-fished have shown a clear reduction in holdings, which is currently the main force behind the selling, while early investors' positions remain relatively stable. From Bitcoin's chip distribution, $102,000 is a short-term support level, and the $100,500-$105,000 range has accumulated 1.4 million Bitcoins, mostly held by short-term investors.
From the spot ETF data, Bitcoin's spot ETF saw a net inflow of $667 million yesterday, continuing a four-day net inflow.
Ethereum's spot ETF also had a net inflow of $13.66 million yesterday, marking two days of net inflow.
This indicates that institutions are still bottom-fishing Bitcoin, which will have a certain uplifting effect on Bitcoin's short-term price. Overall, the short-term upward momentum for Bitcoin is relatively strong, and if it breaks through $110,000 to set a new high, Ethereum is likely to rise as well. Once ETH breaks through, it could boost the valuation of the entire public chain sector, igniting market sentiment, and funds may spill over into altcoins and meme coins.
Historically, every time Bitcoin and ETH surge, altcoins experience a wave of explosions, especially meme coins on Solana and projects on small to medium public chains, which can be preemptively positioned.
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