'Three bull markets earned ten million, three bear markets wiped me out. Is it luck? Indeed. Is it skill? True. But to truly survive, I found it’s neither luck nor skill, but a system that can counter human nature.'
This is my only answer to this question after ten years in the cryptocurrency world.
When I first entered the cryptocurrency world, I also thought it was about luck.
In 2017, I was still an operations engineer. Back then, the cryptocurrency world was very niche; hardly anyone outside knew about Bitcoin, and many projects operated like street stalls, with white papers written like fantasy novels. But precisely because of this, buying a random altcoin could yield dozens or even hundreds of times returns the following year.
At that time, we didn't have so-called technical analysis, candlestick tactics, on-chain intelligence, and we didn't understand tokenomics. The only driving force was: boldness + being early + information disparity.
A certain 'earth coin' I bought for 100 yuan back then later soared to a market value of tens of millions. It sounds like luck, but in reality, without the courage of that period and the early barbaric state of the market, even having 'skill' wouldn’t matter.
Therefore, in the early stages of the cryptocurrency world—yes, luck is everything.
The skill in a bull market is often a false proposition.
In 2017, I became rich in the cryptocurrency world for the second time. By participating in early ICO crowdfunding, I invested in projects like BNB, OMG, Quantum Chain, NEO, and at one point, earned over ten million in assets.
But what caused my liquidation was precisely 'skill'.
Why?
Because at that time, I had already started to learn candlesticks, look at indicators, and use MACD and RSI to determine buy and sell points, thinking I had mastered 'trading skills'. But what really caused my problems was—after thinking I had skills, I began to distrust luck, fate, and only trusted myself.
I was so confident that I blindly over-invested and lost my risk awareness;
No matter how good my skills are, I couldn't control my hands from trading frequently;
I thought I could catch the top, but ended up riding all the way to the bottom.
I gradually realized that in the cryptocurrency market, especially at the end of a bull market—skill is not useless, but is easily overshadowed by luck.
A person who can't even read candlesticks might achieve financial freedom by heavily investing in meme coins; a person who is proficient in indicators might die from 'overconfidence'.
Bull markets test luck, bear markets are the mirror to reveal the truth.
True skill is the ability to 'survive'.
After 2018, I began to reflect: since I have skills and experience, why do I still face liquidation? Why can’t I escape every bull-bear transition?
I found that the problem is not whether you can read charts, but whether you have 'systematic trading ability'.
True skill is the sum of the following abilities:
The ability to build a trading system: clarify your coin selection logic, entry and exit signals, position allocation, take profit and stop loss mechanisms;
The ability to execute discipline: it’s not about being accurate, but whether you can consistently trade according to the rules;
The ability of risk control: it’s not about earning a lot, but losing less, with the maximum drawdown within controllable limits;
The ability to manage emotions: holding firm in fear, having the courage to exit in greed;
The ability to optimize reviews: being able to review mistakes every day and continuously optimize the system.
These are the true 'skills' that can help you navigate cycles and survive bear markets.
You see, for those who have survived long in the cryptocurrency world, skill is no longer key; cognitive structure + behavior system + self-discipline execution is their true moat.
No matter how strong your skills are, they can't compete with the extreme volatility of luck.
Don’t mythologize skill, and don’t deify luck.
One characteristic of the cryptocurrency world is that the profits and risks brought by extreme volatility are dozens or even hundreds of times greater than those in traditional markets.
So you will see:
A new project suddenly lists a coin, and within 5 minutes, it skyrockets by 200%; this is not skill, but news + early layout;
When a chain is broken, or a bridge is hacked, and tens of millions of funds go to zero, this is not skill, but a black swan;
A recommendation from a big influencer, if you grab it within the first 10 seconds, it can be dozens of times; this is not skill, but luck + execution power.
The operating mechanism of the cryptocurrency world is essentially information disparity × time disparity × leveraged amplification × human nature game.
In this context, skill can add points, but cannot determine everything; luck can catalyze but is also unreplicable.
Therefore, the 'iron rule' I set for myself is:
When luck comes, skill is the weapon that allows you to earn more; when luck leaves, skill is the shield that keeps you alive.
I went from losing 2 million to establishing an 'anti-liquidation system', rebuilding my beliefs through side businesses.
In the past decade, I lost over 2 million yuan in the cryptocurrency world. This is real money, not floating losses. Moreover, many losses stemmed from blind trading due to 'thinking I had skills'.
In 2024, I completely awakened and decided to establish my own 'anti-liquidation execution system', which is not only used for my own trading but also serves as the core for building a side business product system.
I did these things:
Build a Notion system: record every trading action and review, break down entry and exit logic, position allocation, maximum loss control;
Daily writing: reviewing a trading insight, a reading experience, a market summary every day, not only improving cognition but also building influence;
Launching side business products: I turned my ten years of experience into tool templates and course systems to help those who are also confused and repeatedly liquidated in the cryptocurrency world;
Initiate a reconstruction plan: flip the label of 'liquidator', rebuild the belief system, and walk out of your long-termism path.
Now, I no longer trade easily, no longer rely on inspiration, and no longer fear drawdowns. Every move I make is backed by structured decision-making.
This is the true 'skill'.
Here are three suggestions for you.
If you are a newcomer or have experienced liquidation, I want to give you three sincere suggestions:
Don’t pursue 'skill' from the start; first build a cognitive system.
Read more books, think more, understand the essence of trading from a macro perspective, starting from cognitive and systematic thinking, is much more useful than blindly looking at charts.
Real champions do not shout orders or create hype every day, but silently build their own compounding trading models and execution disciplines. Learn the underlying logic of trading, rather than copying others' actions.
Establish your own 'anti-liquidation execution system'.
No matter if you are doing spot trading, contracts, DeFi, or meme coins, you should:
Have a set of recording tools (I use Notion).
Have a set of execution rules (including position, take profit and stop loss, review)
Have a reminder mechanism (timely reminders for emotions, indicators, reviews).
If you don't even have these, don't talk about skill, and don't expect luck; it’s just a momentary fluke.
Summary: The cryptocurrency world is neither about skill nor luck, but your ability to master human nature.
It took me ten years to understand the essence of this issue.
The extreme environment of the cryptocurrency world amplifies human greed and fear; skill can only add points, luck can only catalyze, what truly determines whether you can go far is whether you have established an anti-human, replicable decision-making system.
If you finish reading this article and want to know how I gradually transformed from a liquidated trader to a systematic trader, feel free to leave a message in the comments!
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