Many people may be wondering: what is the most important thing in the cryptocurrency trading market, mindset, technical analysis, or luck? Today, let's have a good chat about this.
We must clearly recognize that in this market, spot trading and contract trading are completely two different worlds.
First, let's talk about spot trading. Spot trading is divided into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are stable coin holders, it is basically about buying when no one cares and selling when there is a lot of noise. This does not require technical skills and is unrelated to luck; psychology plays a major role. First, during a bear market when no one cares, you have to dare to buy, and after buying, you need to be patient. Then, when the bull market is booming, you have to be decisive to take profits and not be overly anxious. In contrast, not every altcoin will rise in a bull market; many will fade away or even go bankrupt. Certainly, you will do some research before buying, similar to your reasons for choosing this project, as well as everything related to the project’s track, vision, etc., which you have thoroughly investigated. In the end, you make the move with good confidence to hold through a bull market. At this point, luck becomes particularly important. What luck? Of course, it is that the project you selected does not disappoint you, survives the bear market, and quickly gives you returns once the bull market arrives; conversely, if luck is not on your side and you make the wrong bet, you may survive the bear market but remain unknown in the bull market. More importantly, you might miss the entire bull market. This is also why I suggest everyone to choose Bitcoin and Ethereum as much as possible during the bear market, because these two will undoubtedly rise in the bull market. If both of them fail, there is no need to continue trading.
Compared to the cyclical trading of spot, contract trading requires a certain level of technical analysis. Whether you are a trend follower or a short-term trader, you cannot escape this so-called analysis. However, technical analysis is merely the foundation for opening positions, or various analyses are just psychological comfort for betting on this position. The result of the analysis is to convince yourself that it is necessary to open a position this way. Once the position is opened, I feel that more has to be left to luck. Even if your analysis is flawless and the target is moving in the direction of your analysis, can you withstand the sudden spikes and stop-loss hits in this unregulated centralized exchange? If luck is not on your side, prices may not change and your position is gone; if luck is on your side, the latest price hits your stop-loss but the marked price hasn't reached it, and it continues to move in the direction of your analysis, that would indeed be delightful.
In fact, opinions on contracts have always been mixed. Grabbing a wave of trends for profits can be like an endless tide, but the process is not as wonderful as it appears on the screen; we cannot know how much psychological warfare and torment one has to go through in the middle. Supporters of contracts will say that with a stable trading system and good position management, contracts are not scary; those against contracts should account for the majority, as there are too many examples of people falling into the abyss because of contracts. After all, we are human and cannot execute like machines. Therefore, I have always admired traders who excel at contracts, and I even think they are somewhat abnormal, with abnormal mindset management and execution.
So, overall, I think in this market, luck is greater than mindset, which is greater than technical analysis.
There is no intention to belittle technical traders; it just seems relatively less important in this market.
In terms of technical analysis, you can choose not to use it, but you cannot be without it; you can know it, but you cannot be overly superstitious, after all, all indicators are first created and then drawn.
Remember this: the crypto world has risks, and entering the market requires caution. Don't let the myth of getting rich quick cloud your judgment. Steady and steady wins the race in this market. I wish you good luck and hope you find your own investment rhythm soon!
