Trend judgment: Rebound meets resistance, short-term enters a weak adjustment structure
Technical structure breakdown: From the 1-hour candlestick chart, TRUMP surged to 13.592 with high volume on May 18th before quickly forming a large bearish engulfing candle, indicating a weakening trend.
Clear top signals: 13.6 builds a short-term high point, 'naked bearish candle + engulfing structure', accompanied by high volume, indicating a clear short-term false breakout washout.
Moving average system: The current candlestick has broken below the MA5/10/20/30 moving average group, establishing a short-term bearish configuration. Two consecutive candlesticks failing to reclaim above 13 confirms the establishment of a short-term top.

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Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the middle band or even lower, with the Bollinger Bands expanding in a trumpet shape, indicating an upcoming period of amplified volatility, with a downward bias.
SAR indicator: Turning green downwards, with three consecutive green dots confirming the main trend turning bearish.
Volume change: During the process of falling from high points, the volume decreases, showing weak buying power.
Today's operational strategy recommendation (focus on stability, buy on dips without chasing highs): Today's direction: Weakly bearish, rebound is uncertain

Volume continues to look for a decline
Current price: 12.8
First support level: 12.65
Second support level: 12.40
Stop-loss level: 13.05
If the price rebounds and re-establishes above the 13 integer level, and effectively breaks through the 1-hour MA20, it indicates that the bearish structure has been disrupted, and one can stop-loss and exit.
Possible fluctuation forecast for today (200-300 points): If the trend continues to be weak, the target may reach the 12.50-12.40 area, corresponding to a decline of about 200-300 points.
If a stop-loss rebound occurs during the trading session, the upper pressure zone is in the 12.95-13.00 range, where yesterday's engulfing top pressure is located; a volume breakthrough is needed to turn bullish.
Subjective judgment and trading thoughts: TRUMP currently has a weak structure, and from a pattern perspective, there are signs of a high breakout followed by a pullback; several failed attempts to hold above 13 indicate ongoing short-term selling pressure.
I tend to continue looking for a decline, waiting for a second confirmation and gaming opportunity in the 12.4 area, not blindly going long, and not easily catching falling knives. Trend trading is not about seeking thrills at high positions but waiting for signal confirmations at key levels.
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