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Currently, the price of Bitcoin has risen above $103,000, and short-term holders have finally 'collectively turned losses into profits'—from a 19% loss last month to a 21% gain now, the speed of this rebound is quite fierce. But the problem is: the price has risen, yet on-chain activity is cooling down.
Is the bull market really back? Or is it just hollow gains?

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1. Don't just focus on profit data; the NVT ratio has skyrocketed. Many people are ecstatic about the yield, but several key on-chain indicators are flashing yellow.
For example, the NVT (Market Cap/On-chain Transaction Volume) has surged nearly 70%, reaching 52.81. What does that mean? Market cap is rising too fast, but the real on-chain transaction volume is not keeping up. This kind of trend often appears before local peaks historically.
On one side, the price is soaring, while on the other, on-chain activity is as silent as a chicken—can you afford to ignore this contrast?

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2. The stock-to-flow ratio has plummeted by 16%, is scarcity loosening? Bitcoin's 'stock-to-flow ratio' has dropped to 1,059,500 coins, a direct decrease of 16.66%. Don’t underestimate this data; it is one of the key indicators of Bitcoin's scarcity.
What does the decline indicate? → Newly produced coins are flowing into speculative markets faster, → Long-term holders may start to hesitate, → Or miners may begin to consider taking profits.
If demand does not rise in sync, it means supply pressure + stagnant demand. Think about how the steering will work later?

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3. On-chain activity has completely stalled; is there no user participation in the rebound? This price increase has occurred, but the number of active users on-chain is plummeting:
DAA (Daily Active Addresses) has dropped by 241.32%
Trading volume is only 67.2K
Network growth has shrunk to 52.9K
This is not what a healthy rebound looks like.
It should be noted that a truly solid market relies on user participation, active trading, and on-chain vibrancy, not air-driven price increases.

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4. Has the long-short ratio fallen, and has the confidence of bulls begun to collapse? The derivatives market has also changed its face:
The long-short ratio has fallen to 0.9964
Bulls 49.91%, bears 50.09%
This means: the previously one-sided bullish sentiment has disappeared, and now it’s a wait-and-see approach with unclear direction.
Market confidence is being consumed by high valuations and low activity.
5. Conclusion: The price has risen, but the foundation is empty. The current 'profit data' for Bitcoin is good, but valuation, trading volume, on-chain activity, and user expansion are all lagging behind. This rebound is reminiscent of 'hollow gains': flashy on the outside, but hollow inside.
If these indicators do not keep up, this price increase will be like a high platform without support, which could fall and hit people. #Huobi Pizza Carnival, $200,000 rewards up for grabs!#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #山寨季何时到来？ #以太坊安全计划 #美国PPI数据来袭 #美国加密立法 $BTC $ETH $SOL