I. Core Judgment of Short-term Trend
After breaking the second support level, Ethereum (ETH) started to rebound, with the 2481 price level becoming a key turning point tonight. Its performance on the 1-hour candlestick chart will determine whether the short-term rebound can be initiated.
- Bullish Confirmation Signal: If the 1-hour candlestick continues to close above 2481 and maintains this trend for the next two periods, it indicates that the rebound momentum at the 1-hour level is sufficient, and the market is likely to shake off the downward pressure, starting a new upward trend, with bullish forces gradually dominating.
- Bearish Warning Signal: If the price consistently fails to stabilize above 2481, it indicates that this rebound lacks effective support, and bearish forces remain strong, with a high probability of continuing the downward trend, and the market may fall back into a downward adjustment.
II. Distribution of Key Levels and Strategy Reference
(1) Upside Resistance Level
1. First Resistance Level: 2512
- Technical Characteristics: This position is the upper edge of the previous price consolidation range, where a large number of trapped positions are gathered. When the price rises to this level, the dual selling pressure from profit-taking and untrapping will become the primary obstacle to short-term upward movement.
2. Mid-term Resistance Level: 2553
- Technical Characteristics: This point coincides with a key Fibonacci resistance level and is also suppressed by medium to long-term moving averages. To achieve a breakout, not only is strong buying power needed, but the overall market sentiment must also be highly optimistic.
3. Trend Breakout Level: 2600
- Technical Characteristics: Once the ETH price successfully stabilizes at this level, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, and the subsequent upward space is expected to be significantly opened, indicating the start of a new round of strong upward momentum.
(2) Downside Support Level
If the 1-hour level cannot stabilize above 2481, it is expected to trigger a new round of retracement, with the following support levels in order:
1. Primary Support Level: 2442
- Technical Characteristics: Formed by the convergence of short-term moving averages, this support level is also an important psychological barrier that has been tested multiple times in the past, capable of buffering the impact of bearish moves to some extent.
2. Secondary Support Level: 2406
- Technical Characteristics: As a strong support level formed by previous price lows, if lost, market bearish sentiment may further intensify, triggering larger-scale selling.
3. Strong Support Level: 2361
- Technical Characteristics: This is a key battlefield where moving averages from multiple cycles converge in support, and the gains and losses here directly affect the subsequent medium to long-term trend of ETH. If broken, it may trigger a deep correction.
III. Summary
The core of Ethereum's short-term trend lies in the battle for the 2481 level. If the price can effectively stabilize above this level, bulls are likely to challenge the 2512 - 2600 resistance range; if unable to hold, there is a risk of the price retracing to the 2442 - 2361 area. The volatility is intense and full of uncertainty, so it is recommended to closely monitor the changes in the 1-hour candlestick patterns, strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and reasonably control positions.
