I. Core analysis of short-term trends
The key turning point for the Bitcoin market tonight focuses on the price level of 103630. Whether the 4-hour candlestick can effectively stabilize above 103630 will be a key indicator for determining the end of the short-term pullback.
- Bullish confirmation signal: If the 4-hour candlestick continues to close above 103630, it indicates that the pullback momentum is exhausted, and the market is expected to open a new round of upward trend, with bullish forces regaining dominance.
- Bearish warning signal: Conversely, if it cannot stabilize at this price level, it indicates weak rebounds, and the market is likely to continue the pullback trend, with bearish forces potentially continuing to dominate.
II. Distribution of key levels and strategic references
(I) Upward pressure level
1. First resistance level: 104870
- Technical characteristics: This position is the upper edge of the previous price fluctuation and consolidation range, where a large number of trapped positions are concentrated. When the price rises to this level, it is easy to trigger dual selling pressure from profit-taking and position unwinding, constituting the primary obstacle to short-term upward movement.
2. Mid-term resistance level: 105860
- Technical characteristics: Located in the overlap area of key moving average resistance and Fibonacci key resistance levels, it requires strong buying power to push through, along with a highly optimistic market sentiment, to achieve effective breakthroughs.
3. Trend breakout level: 107065
- Technical characteristics: Once the price of Bitcoin successfully stabilizes at this level, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, and the subsequent upward space is expected to be significantly opened, initiating a new round of strong upward momentum.
(II) Downward support level
If the 4-hour cycle fails to stabilize above 103630, it is expected to trigger a new round of pullback, with the following support levels in order:
1. Primary support level: 102540
- Technical characteristics: The short-term moving averages converge to form support, and it is also an important psychological defense line that has been tested multiple times previously, which can buffer the downward pressure from bears.
2. Secondary support level: 101460
- Technical characteristics: The strong support level formed by previous price lows. If this level is lost, the market's bearish sentiment may further intensify, triggering larger-scale sell-offs.
3. Strong support level: 100670
- Technical characteristics: The convergence support area of multiple time frame moving averages is a key battleground for the fierce competition between bulls and bears. Its gains and losses directly affect the subsequent medium to long-term trend of Bitcoin. Once broken, it may trigger a deep pullback.
III. Summary
The core of the short-term trend for Bitcoin lies in the competition between bulls and bears at the 103630 level. If the price can effectively stabilize above this position, bulls are expected to challenge the resistance range of 104870 - 107065; if it cannot stabilize, caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a price pullback towards the 102540 - 100670 areas. The volatility is extremely intense, and it is recommended that everyone closely monitor the changes in 4-hour candlestick patterns, strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and reasonably control positions. $BTC #BTC走势分析
