1. Core Judgment of Short-term Trend
The key turning point in the current Bitcoin market trend focuses on the core price level of 103630. Whether the closing price of the 4-hour candlestick can effectively stabilize at this position will become a decisive indicator for judging the short-term trend direction:
- Bullish Confirmation Signal: If the 4-hour candlestick continuously closes above 103630, it indicates that this wave of 4-hour level correction has officially ended, with bullish strength taking the lead, and the market is expected to open a new round of upward trend;
- Bearish Warning Signal: Conversely, if it cannot stabilize at this price level, it indicates that the rebound momentum at a smaller scale is exhausted, and the subsequent trend will continue to decline.
2. Key Price Level Distribution and Strategy Reference
(1) Upward Pressure Level
1. First Resistance Level: 104870
- Technical Characteristics: The overlapping of trapped positions and profit-taking positions formed in previous dense trading areas can easily trigger selling pressure, constituting a major obstacle to short-term upward movement.
2. Medium-term Pressure Level: 105860
- Technical Characteristics: The important moving average resistance level resonates with the key Fibonacci resistance level, which requires strong market buying power to achieve a breakthrough.
3. Trend Breakthrough Level: 107065
- Technical Characteristics: Once it effectively stabilizes, it will confirm that Bitcoin has entered a new upward channel, opening up wider room for growth.
(2) Downward Support Level
If the 4-hour cycle fails to stabilize at 103630, it is expected to trigger a corrective trend, with subsequent support levels as follows:
1. Primary Support Level: 102540
- Technical Characteristics: Short-term moving average support level, which is also an important reference line at the daily level. If the daily closing price falls below this level, it indicates the start of a daily level correction.
2. Secondary Support Level: 101460
- Technical Characteristics: The psychological support level formed by previous lows has a certain buffering effect against bears' downward probing.
3. Strong Support Level: 100670
- Technical Characteristics: A convergence support level of multiple time frame moving averages, this is a critical battleground for the fierce struggle between bulls and bears, and its gains and losses directly affect the subsequent medium to long-term trend of Bitcoin.
3. Summary
The core contradiction in the short-term trend of Bitcoin concentrates on the struggle between bulls and bears at the key level of 103630. If the price can effectively stabilize above this level, bulls are expected to challenge the resistance range of 104870 - 107065; if it cannot stabilize, one needs to be alert to the risk of the price retracing to the support area of 102540 - 100670. It is recommended to closely monitor the changes in the candlestick patterns at the 4-hour and daily levels, strictly set stop-loss and take-profit points, and reasonably control positions.$BTC #比特币走势分析 
