May 17th, early morning $ETH 's trend support level and future direction forecast!
1. Short-term moving average support
MA(25) 2581
MA(99) 2571
Currently, 2591 is above the short-term moving averages; if it breaks down, pay attention to the support strength of MA25 and MA99. MA99 acts as a long-term trend line; if it is lost, it could trigger further corrections.
2512 is the short-term bull-bear dividing line, forming a tiered defense line with the deep support levels listed in the candlestick chart, such as 2506, 2424, etc. Market sentiment is deteriorating and will test this area.
The MACD indicator DIF 5.16 is below DEA 6.72, resulting in a negative value of -1.56, indicating that short-term momentum is bearish, raising awareness of price correction risks.
2. Interwoven bull and bear factors
Bullish: Pectra upgrade enhances network performance, validator staking thresholds raised or circulation reduced; institutions increase ETH holdings against the trend, spot ETF if it introduces staking yields may attract capital inflows.
Bearish: MACD histogram negative value indicates short-term momentum is bearish; China-US tariff policies and increased volatility in US stocks heighten market linkage risks; if it breaks below $1600, it could trigger $336 million liquidation.
3. Future price path prediction
Short term within 1 month
Support range 257→2506 technical support→2424 deep support.
Resistance level, 2649, 24-hour high→2700 short-term optimistic target.
Key catalyst: must stabilize above 2500 and observe whether MACD repairs to the positive area.
Mid-term to the end of 2025
Optimistic scenario: If the Pectra upgrade effect is significant and ETF capital inflows accelerate, ETH may challenge the $3,000 resistance and target the historic high of $5,000.
Pessimistic scenario: Macroeconomic shocks or regulatory uncertainties may cause prices to fall back to the $1600-2000 range.
4. Operational suggestions
Bullish strategy: If the price stabilizes above MA(25) 2581, consider light positioning with a target of 2700, and add positions after breaking through 3,000.
Bearish defense: If it breaks below 2500, need to reduce positions, closely monitor support around 2424; if macro risks escalate, hedge against downside risks.
Long-term holding: Pay attention to ETH's ecological progress in AI, DeFi, and Layer-2, and accumulate on dips.
Ethereum is currently at a critical juncture of bull-bear contention, with technical indicators short-term bearish, but long-term narratives (upgrades, AI, ETF) still hold potential.
The core support range is 2500-2571; if lost, beware of deeper corrections; if stabilized, it may open up a new round of upward cycles!
If you are still confused without direction, and think my analysis is good, please give a follow. I have already laid out long-term strategies and will update short-term strategies from time to time for profits!
