Bitcoin is consolidating at a high level, altcoin season signals are strengthening, May 16!

1. Bitcoin is oscillating at a high level, having entered a consolidation phase after breaking through $100,000, currently priced at approximately $103,835, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of $101,383-$104,466. Short-term resistance is at $104,466, the 24-hour high, and support is at MA(25) $103,373 and the 24-hour low of $101,383. The MACD indicator continues to show a death cross, and the RSI has retreated to the neutral zone, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

2. On-chain data differentiation

Exchange Bitcoin reserves have fallen to historical lows, indicating reduced market selling pressure, and scarcity premiums may support long-term prices.

Some whale addresses have transferred BTC to exchanges near $105,000, showing clear signs of profit-taking, which may temporarily suppress breakthrough momentum.

Stablecoin liquidity is shifting, with USDT/USDC on Tron chain surging by $1.74 billion, possibly flowing into DeFi and altcoin spaces; Solana has seen $1.38 billion in stablecoin outflows, with on-chain activity under pressure.

3. Institutional and policy factors

ETF fund differentiation, with inflows for ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT shrinking in a single day, but medium to long-term allocation funds are still locking in low-cost chips below $60,000, forming bottom support.

Favorable macro policies, with the China-US tariff agreement easing market uncertainty, but delayed expectations for Fed interest rate cuts will suppress risk appetite.

Altcoin season signals are strengthening

Capital rotation is accelerating, with Bitcoin's dominant position declining by 4% over six days, and TOTAL2 (total market cap excluding BTC) breaking through the $1.25 trillion resistance, with funds shifting towards ETH, SOL, and other altcoins, which have risen by 44.3% and 22% respectively over the past week.

The market share of stablecoins is declining, with USDT's dominance falling to 4.59%, approaching the 2022 low, as funds accelerate outflows from stablecoins.

If prices correct, it may trigger a chain liquidation, with some altcoins still 70%-90% lower than historical highs; while there is room for a rebound, caution for speculative bubbles is advised.

Operation suggestion $BTC

Northbound strategy: If the price stabilizes above MA(7) $103,790, consider light long positions, targeting $104,466–the 24-hour high, with a stop loss set below $103,300 at MA(25).

Southbound strategy: If the price touches $104,466 but fails to break through and trading volume shrinks, consider partial profit-taking; if the MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, consider going short, targeting $102,500.

Without further ado, take a look at the chart, strategy remains stable, do not trade frequently, wait for two opportunities in a day, and you can take 2-3 trades; if you have no ideas for opening positions, sometimes referring to others' strategies is not a bad thing!