Ethereum 5.15 market warning: long-short game under triple risk superposition

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Multiple technical warning signals appear: ETH/USDT suddenly fell 3% on the five-minute line, and the weekly 2550 support level is approaching the maximum energy test in six months. MACD daily level dead cross resonates with KDJ oversold zone. If it effectively falls below the key level of 2550, on-chain data shows that it will trigger leveraged liquidation worth US$420 million. The ETH/BTC exchange rate continued to fluctuate at the 0.024 life-and-death line. The whale address transferred 28,000 ETH to the exchange within three hours, and the perpetual contract funding rate reached an annual extreme of -0.023%.

Tonight, three major risk events were released: If the US PPI data for April exceeded expectations at 20:30 (previous value 0.2%), it may hit the market risk appetite hard; the minutes of the Fed meeting in the early morning of the next day will test the possibility of a rate cut in June; the SEC's ruling on the Ethereum ETF entered the final 48-hour countdown, and the current implied approval rate is less than 18%. If the three major negative factors resonate, the 2450-2500 range may become the last line of defense for the bulls.

Trading strategy recommendations: ① Build a position every 50 dollars below 2550, and control the total position within 40%; ② The 2600 integer mark is the watershed between long and short positions, and the 2650 pressure level will be considered if it breaks through; ③ It is recommended to switch positions to BTC or stablecoins for risk hedging. It should be noted that the current premium rate of Grayscale ETHE Fund is 12%. If the ETF is postponed, it may trigger institutional selling pressure.