The cryptocurrency market has seen an influx of $2 billion in incremental funds, with long and short forces in a tug of war at a critical position. At 20:09 Beijing time on May 17, Tether issued an additional 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain (with a total daily issuance of $2 billion), coinciding with Powell releasing key signals after the interest rate decision: ① Clearly stating that the core PCE in April may drop to 2.2% (only 20 basis points away from the 2% inflation target); ② Acknowledging that the job market is cooling down (non-farm payrolls have been revised down for two consecutive months); ③ For the first time stating "I do not believe the next action will be an interest rate hike".

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From a technical perspective, ETH/USDT has $1.83 billion in open interest in options within the 2500-2550 range, with put options accounting for 63%. However, on-chain data shows that after the injection of $2 billion in stablecoins, the net outflow of ETH from exchanges surged by 37%, with large whale addresses continuously accumulating at an average price of 2510. The derivatives market shows a strange divergence: despite the funding rate maintaining a bearish stance at -0.015%, the volatility index (Dvol) has plummeted from 89.5 to 78.3, suggesting that professional traders are betting on a short-term rebound.

Current three major short risks: 1. The Federal Reserve giving an early hint of favorable PCE (13 days earlier than the originally scheduled May 30 release date); 2. The cyclical pattern of U.S. election year policies indicates that there are only 8 working days left in the trading window for interest rate cut expectations in June; 3. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose by 12 points to 54 (neutral zone) in one day, increasing the risk of short squeezes. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the 2520-2550 resistance zone; if there is a breakout on the hourly chart, one can follow the trend and go long, with a strict 3% stop loss set.