This morning's 5-minute candlestick was quite fierce. The large coin broke through the psychological barrier of 103000 directly at midnight, dipped to 102900 before being violently pulled back. The operator's door-drawing technique is becoming increasingly sophisticated. The current price is stuck between the middle track of BOLL at 103150 and the lower track at 102780, rubbing against each other, with the volume bar shrinking to the lowest level of the month. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a directional breakout signal. The most dangerous aspect is the death cross of the 5-period moving average of VOLUME with the 10-period, with the divergence between volume and price intensifying. In such a shrinking volume market, even quantitative traders are reluctant to take action.
From a technical perspective, the UB line at 103650 is firmly suppressing the rebound space. Every time it rushes to 103300, it gets shot down by the bears. The daily MACD green bars continue to expand, KDJ has formed a death cross at a high position, and RSI has fallen back to 58, indicating that there is no foundation for a reversal of the major trend. Although the hourly chart has shown a small bullish candle pullback, the volume has contracted by 23% compared to last year, which is clearly a trap for retail investors set by the operators. The key to watch is the life-and-death line at 102500—this is the dual support of the 4-hour EMA60 moving average and the dense area of chips at the monthly level. Once it breaks down with increased volume, it will inevitably trigger programmed stop-loss orders, pointing directly to the strong support at 101900.
On the news front, tonight at 20:30, the U.S. retail sales data will be the biggest variable. The market expects a monthly rate of 0.4%. If it exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, and the large coin may face another severe blow. Tomorrow morning, the Ethereum spot ETF hearing is approaching, and Vitalik suddenly transferred out 28,000 ETH, increasing market anxiety. On-chain data is even more painful: Binance's large accounts have net transferred out 12,000 BTC to cold wallets in the past 24 hours, setting a new single-day high since May. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of 96 million USD in a single day, clearly indicating a retreat of institutional funds.
This market belongs to a phase of mutual destruction for both bulls and bears. Remember, operators love to kill retail investors who chase after red eyes. Controlling your position is the key to survival.
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