Ethereum is currently being pressed by the whales around the mid-Bollinger band at 2550, with both bulls and bears waiting for explosive news. The early morning wave of selling directly led to an 80k trading volume bearish candle, with the MA10 average volume of 64k being pierced without any decent rebound, showing a divergence in volume and price that surpasses even Wall Street's playbook. The Bollinger bands have narrowed into a trumpet shape; this formation either signals a massive bull run or a slaughter of the bears, with the price being firmly suppressed below the 5-day moving average, and the bears currently holding a 70% chance of winning.

On the news front, Ukraine's announcement about Bitcoin as a national reserve sounds impressive, but on-chain data reveals the truth—whales like BlackRock and Grayscale have seen their ETH holdings drop by 12% in just three days, and the smart money's retreat is evident. The favorable details about cryptocurrency payments from Dubai hide some tricks, with actual implementation not expected until Q1 2026, currently just serving as a cover for the whales to unload. What can truly overturn the table is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision; CME data shows a 91.7% probability of maintaining the rate in June, with the sword of Damocles hanging overhead, making the bulls hesitant to act recklessly.

On the technical side, we are currently in the "wolf is coming" version 2.0, with the 2500 support level being faked out three times today. Each time it dropped to 2495, it was quickly pulled back, clearly indicating that funds are fishing for orders. The MACD daily histogram has shrunk by 38%, and the fast and slow lines on the 4-hour chart crossed below the zero axis for the second time, with the bears sounding the charge loud and clear. However, be cautious of the whales' counter operations; if they truly push down below 2480, the weekly gap at 2420 will definitely need to be filled, and at that time, the perpetual contracts' negative funding rate could reach -0.023%, enough for the bears to feast three times.

For spot traders, it's best to place buy orders in batches within the 2400-2450 range, and don't believe in the nonsense about a "solid bottom at 2300." Contract players should remember that 2630 is the real pressure point; until it stabilizes above that, all rebounds are mere paper tigers. Keep an eye on the critical levels of 2500 and 2630; if they break, chase the orders without blinking, and ensure your stop-loss has a buffer of 50 dollars. On-chain data won't lie; following the big money's retreat is always the right move, and waiting for a stable bullish weekly candle before re-entering isn't too late.

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