As someone who has experienced previous cycles, I can truly sense that this bull market's rhythm is drastically different from before; many rules of thumb have failed. From my observations, at least five fundamental changes are occurring in this market:
1. Institutional entry has completely rewritten the rules of the game
In the past, bull markets were driven by retail investors; now Wall Street is processing tens of billions of dollars daily through Bitcoin ETFs (with BlackRock and Fidelity's ETF holdings surpassing 500,000 BTC). This institutional capital acts like a stabilizing force, allowing BTC to break previous highs before the halving, completely disrupting the old cycle of "peaking 18 months after halving." Now BTC's trend resembles tech stocks in the U.S. market, being led by macro policies and ETF capital flows.
2. The ETH ecosystem is facing a "transition period"
In past bull markets, ETH would have led the altcoin frenzy by now, but this time the upgrade to Pectra has been pushed to Q2 2025, coupled with the ambiguous stance of the U.S. SEC on ETH spot ETFs, which has directly blocked institutional entry. Worse still, the Layer 2 race is now being overshadowed by new public chains like SOL and AVAX; several large holders I know have started using ETH as a "stablecoin."
3. Macroeconomic policy has become a double-edged sword
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been pushed from the beginning of the year to the end, with each CPI data release causing market roller coasters. The current consensus on Wall Street is that rate cuts may not happen until Q3 2025, meaning the traditional "liquidity bull" will be delayed by a whole year. Even more troubling is the upcoming U.S. elections, with Trump threatening to raise tariffs; this policy uncertainty has led many institutions to cling to BTC rather than risk trading altcoins.
4. The phenomenon of capital diversion is severe
Previously, bull markets saw BTC reaping the rewards while altcoins benefited marginally; now, capital is being divided among three major forces: ① BTC ETFs siphon off 70% of new funds ② MEME coins attract speculative hot money ③ New narratives like RWA capture institutional funds. On-chain data I monitor shows that net inflows into altcoins have plummeted by 60% compared to the same period last year, indicating that major capital is unwilling to drive up prices.
5. The death spiral cycle may reappear
What chills me most is that miners' holdings have reached a three-year high, and these individuals are stubbornly holding at the $80,000 cost line. If BTC breaks below key support levels triggering miner sell-offs, it could lead to a repeat of the devastating multi-kill scenario of 2018. Not to mention that the current open interest in altcoin contracts is three times the historical peak; this level of leverage could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations with just one needle.
Regarding personal predictions about altcoin season and the bear market:
I still believe there will be an altcoin season, but it may appear in two new forms:
① Sector rotation type: AI + blockchain, Depin, RWA, and other tracks will intermittently explode, but the duration will not exceed 2 weeks
② MEME-dominated type: Community coins like PEPE and WIF may strengthen against the trend, but caution is needed against exchanges colluding with project teams to exploit investors.
As for the timing of the bear market, I share a similar view with David Roche from Quantum Strategy, believing that the real bearish signal might appear at the end of Q1 2025:
✓ Bitcoin's market share rises above 55%
✓ U.S. tech stocks begin significant corrections
✓ The Federal Reserve clearly delays the interest rate cut schedule
✓ ETH upgrades again miss the deadline
(Note: The above is purely personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; do not go all in.)
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