1️⃣ Policy and Macroeconomics: Trade agreements + Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
—Progress of China-U.S. Trade Negotiations**: The Trump administration signals tariff easing, the market's risk appetite continues to warm up, and Bitcoin may rise further driven by safe-haven funds.
—Federal Reserve Policy Trends: Powell states 'considering a wide range of economic data', market expectations for a rate cut in September are heating up, and expectations for liquidity easing may catalyze the rise of crypto assets.
2️⃣ Institutional Funds Flowing Underground
—Wall Street 'Clear Signal to Increase Holdings': BlackRock and Fidelity increased their holdings by over 100,000 BTC in just one week. New Hampshire passes a bill allocating $180 million in Bitcoin, intensifying institutional control trends.
—Bitcoinization of Public Companies: MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, and other companies are accelerating their coin accumulation, financing to purchase BTC has become a strategic standard, with strong long-term demand support.
3️⃣ Key Technical Levels
—BTC Target: $105,000: Currently stabilizing at the $103,000 support level; if it breaks the previous high of $104,000, it will aim for a historical high; strong support below is the psychological barrier of $100,000.
—ETH's Explosive Potential: After breaking $2,200, a technical pullback could present an opportunity to enter long positions, with the 2.0 upgrade and Layer 2 ecosystem driving long-term value.
4️⃣ Countdown to Altcoin Season
—Capital Rotation Signal: Bitcoin's dominance has dropped sharply (65% → 63.8%), with ETH, SOL, DOGE and others rising over 6%, and the altcoin index soaring 56% in 4 days, possibly welcoming a catch-up rally.
—Focus on Tracks: Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum), Meme coins (TRUMP coin), RWA (Real Asset Tokenization) may become the focus of funds.
5️⃣ Risk Warning:
—Regulatory Backlash: The U.S. SEC plans to tighten ETF reviews, and the Democratic Party is pushing the 'Crypto Corruption Bill', leaving policy uncertainty.
—High Leverage Risks: Open contract positions reached $63.25 billion, price fluctuations may trigger a double explosion of long and short positions, extreme market conditions must be monitored.
Operational Suggestions
BTC/ETH: Go with the trend, accumulate in batches at support levels, and set dynamic take-profit and stop-loss orders.
Altcoins: Pay attention to ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound targets, and avoid chasing high-flying air projects.
Meme: The popularity of Trump-related tokens continues, but it’s necessary to enter and exit quickly to guard against a decline in sentiment.
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