As of now, Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, and the altcoin season needs to observe three core variables:

1. **BTC Dominance (BTC.D) Dynamics**: If BTC.D quickly falls from the current level around 55% to below 50%, funds will accelerate their migration to altcoins. Historical experience shows that high volatility in BTC is often accompanied by a weakening of the 'vampire effect';

2. **Liquidity Diffusion Path**: After institutional funds continuously enter through BTC ETFs, if incremental funds overflow to small and mid-cap assets, the total market cap of altcoins needs to break through $1 trillion (currently about $850 billion), forming a weekly breakout;

3. **Narrative Resonance and Technical Breakthrough**: If public chain ecosystems like Solana and Ton see phenomenal applications (such as AI + DePIN or popular blockchain games), or if meme coins regain popularity, it may ignite market sentiment.

In the short term, if BTC stabilizes above $100,000 and consolidates, combined with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, the altcoin season may gradually start in August-September, but caution is needed regarding the repeated rotation of funds under high volatility. Regulatory uncertainty (such as the U.S. election's crypto policy game) remains a potential risk.