The 2024 rebound of the encrypted market, supported by multiple factors: Bitcoin's supply tightening after the halving, enhanced liquidity expectations due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and continued inflow of institutional funds through spot ETFs (BlackRock's IBIT holds over 300,000 BTC). If Ethereum's ETF is approved, it may further stimulate the market. From a technical perspective, if BTC can stabilize at the key level of $67,000, the probability of breaking through the historical peak of $69,000 in June 2021 is relatively high. However, caution is needed for black swan risks: uncertainties in U.S. election policies, fluctuations in exchange reserves (currently about 3 million BTC), and intensified regulation may trigger short-term selling pressure. Overall, the market is likely to break new highs within the year with a probability exceeding 60% driven by improved liquidity and the expansion of ecological applications; it is recommended to pay attention to on-chain data and macro policy changes.