The possibility of Bitcoin (#BTC重返10万 ) recently hitting $150,000 needs to be assessed based on multiple dynamics:
**Supporting Factors**
1. **Liquidity**: The cooling of inflation in the U.S. strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts. Under the global liquidity easing expectation, institutions continue to increase their positions through spot ETFs (with a weekly net inflow exceeding $1 billion). Additionally, traditional asset management giants launching BTC trust products accelerates the inflow of new capital.
2. **On-chain Signals**: The proportion of long-term holders reaches a historical peak (76%), exchange balances drop to a new five-year low, selling pressure significantly weakens, and the chips are highly locked in.
3. **Technical Structure**: After the weekly breakout of the 72,000 neckline, the measured target of the head and shoulders bottom pattern points to 120,000 to 130,000. If the daily chart forms a "rising flag" consolidation, the theoretical target could reach 150,000 after a breakout.
**Key Resistance and Risks**
- **Macroeconomic Disturbances**: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts or sudden intervention by the U.S. SEC in the crypto derivatives market could trigger a sharp drop;
- **Psychological Barriers**: $100,000 serves as a strong psychological resistance level. If it is tested repeatedly without success, it may lead to profit-taking sell-offs;
- **On-chain Warnings**: The average cost for short-term holders rises to 64,000 (current floating profit exceeds 40%). If the price corrects more than 20%, it may trigger a wave of leveraged liquidations.
**Conclusion**
If it breaks above 100,000 and stabilizes in the third quarter, under the combined effects of continuous ETF inflows, miners holding back sales, and a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy, there is logical support for hitting 150,000 by the end of the year. However, one must remain vigilant about potential fluctuations at the 30% level. Closely monitor Coinbase's premium rate, ETF net inflow data, and the movement of the U.S. dollar index.
