The possibility of Ethereum ($ETH ) breaking its historical high (4878 USD) in 2024 is relatively high, with core driving factors including: 1. **Rising expectations for spot ETFs**, which, if approved by the US SEC, will attract billions of dollars in institutional funds; 2. **Benefits from technological upgrades**, with the Dencun upgrade leading to an explosion in the Layer 2 ecosystem, and reduced Gas fees driving application growth; 3. **Improvement in macro liquidity**, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve leading to a surge of funds into risk assets. The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is at a historical low (0.046), indicating significant room for recovery. However, caution is needed regarding regulatory risks (SEC's securities classification disputes) and ecological competition (funds being diverted to Solana and others). If it breaks through the key resistance level of 3500 USD, the probability of reaching 5000 USD within the year exceeds 55%. It is advisable to pay attention to the ETF approval progress and the movements of large on-chain whales.