The rebound of the encrypted market in 2024 is supported by multiple factors: the tightening of supply after the Bitcoin halving, increased liquidity expectations due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and continued inflow of institutional funds through spot ETFs (BlackRock's IBIT holding over 300,000 BTC). If the Ethereum ETF is approved, it may further stimulate the market. From a technical perspective, if BTC can hold the critical level of $67,000, the probability of breaking through the historical peak of $69,000 from June 2021 is high. However, one must be wary of black swan risks: policy uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, fluctuations in exchange reserves (currently about 3 million BTC), and strengthened regulations may trigger short-term selling pressure. Comprehensive judgment indicates that with improvements in liquidity and expansion of ecological applications, the probability of reaching a new high within the year exceeds 60%. It is recommended to pay attention to on-chain data and macro policy changes.