I. Core Point Analysis
1. Bull-Bear Watershed: 102360, as the lower boundary of the consolidation range, is the lifeline of the short-term market. If the price stabilizes above this level, bulls still have the possibility to rebound; once it effectively breaks below, bears will take control.
2. Key Resistance Levels
- First Checkpoint: 104365, the upper limit of the consolidation range and previous high position, breaking this level will open up upward space.
- Secondary Resistance: If it breaks above 104365, pay attention to strong resistance levels like 105395, 106400, and 107255.
3. Support Levels: After breaking below 102360, 100950, 99200, and 97730 form a tiered support line, each level may trigger concentrated buying.
II. Scenario-Based Trading Strategy
（一）Bullish Trading Strategy
Entry Conditions:
- Price stabilizes above 102360, and within 1-2 hour levels, the following signals appear:
- K-line forms reversal patterns such as Bullish Engulfing and Morning Star;
- Trading volume increases by over 30% compared to the previous trading day, indicating fund inflow.
- Combine with Technical Indicators: The MACD indicator forms a Golden Cross below the zero line, and the RSI indicator breaks above 50.
Position and Take Profit:
- First Target Level: 104365, after reaching it, reduce position by 30% to lock in profits;
- Second Target Level: 105395, reduce position by 30%;
- Third Target Level: 106400, clear out position.
Stop Loss Setting: If it falls below 102360 by 1% (approximately 101336), unconditionally stop loss and exit.
（二）Short Selling Trading Strategy
Entry Conditions:
- Price effectively breaks below 102360, and meets:
- 1-2 hour level K-line shows two consecutive bearish candles with closing prices below 102360;
- Trading volume increases to more than 1.5 times the recent average, confirming a bearish dominance.
- Technical Indicators: The MACD indicator forms a Death Cross above the zero line, and the RSI indicator falls below 50.
Position and Take Profit:
- First Target Level: 100950, reduce position by 30% after reaching;
- Second Target Level: 99200, reduce position by 30%;
- Third Target Level: 97730, clear out position.
Stop Loss Setting: If it breaks above 102360 by 1% (approximately 103384), decisively stop loss.
（三）Flat Observation Strategy
1. Consolidation Period: Prices fluctuate between 102360-104365, and there are no clear breakout signals (such as three consecutive K-line closing prices breaking the boundary), maintain a flat position.
2. Major Event Period: Pause trading within 24 hours before and after major events such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and blockchain industry policy announcements due to high market uncertainty.
3. Indicator Contradiction Period: When technical indicators show conflicting signals (e.g., moving averages are bullish but MACD shows a Death Cross), do not participate in trading.
III. Risk Control and Dynamic Adjustment
1. Position Management: Single trade position should not exceed 20% of total capital to avoid excessive losses due to market fluctuations.
2. Dynamic Tracking: Review the gains and losses of key levels after daily closing; if prices reach take profit/stop loss levels, strictly execute the plan without hesitation.
3. Macroeconomic Factors: Pay attention to macro factors such as the US dollar index and technology stocks in the US stock market. If they conflict with technical signals, prioritize macro trends.
IV. Summary
Bitcoin is currently at a critical node for directional choice; 102360 is the core stronghold for bulls and bears. Investors must strictly execute scenario-based trading strategies: seize bullish opportunities when prices stabilize at support levels, and layout bearish positions when effectively breaking below; maintain a flat position during consolidation or major risk periods. At the same time, through position control, stop loss settings, and dynamic tracking, build a complete risk defense line to achieve stable trading in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.$BTC #BTC走势分析
