Bitcoin Market Dynamics Report: Intensifying Bull-Bear Struggle, $100,000 Becomes the Focus
May 7, 2025 Latest Market Analysis
Price Volatility and Key Support
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced significant volatility, peaking at $97,400 on May 3, and then undergoing a three-day pullback, reaching a low of $93,445, with total long liquidations amounting to $116 million. As of May 5, BTC was priced at $94,212, down 1.75% for the day, with technical indicators showing $93,000 as a short-term key support level; if this level is lost, it may further decline to $89,000. The upper resistance is concentrated in the $95,000-$95,500 range, and a breakthrough could potentially challenge the $100,000 mark.
Institutional Funds and ETF Trends
Despite the price pullback, institutional funds continue to flow into Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a net inflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, and over $3.1 billion in net inflows in the last week of April, setting a historical record. At the same time, the Deribit Bitcoin futures premium remains high, with an annualized basis rate of about 7.42%, indicating that the market holds an optimistic outlook for mid- to long-term prices.
Market Sentiment and Leverage Risks
Current market sentiment is neutral to greedy, with open interest in the options market reaching a new high of $1.5 billion at the $100,000 price level, reflecting strong investor expectations for a breakout. However, leveraged trading volume has surged by 200%, with long and short positions highly concentrated around $97,000. Platforms like XBIT have detected shorts positioned above $98,000, necessitating caution against drastic pullbacks triggered by black swan events.
Long-Term Forecast and Macro Benefits
Analysts generally believe that institutional entry, policy support in the Middle East (such as Dubai accepting Bitcoin for real estate purchases), and halving cycle effects will drive BTC to challenge $100,000 in May. Standard Chartered noted that Bitcoin is replacing gold as a safe-haven asset, and if it breaks through key resistance, FOMO sentiment may help propel the price to $156,000.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently in a crucial window of bull-bear struggle, with $100,000 being not only a psychological barrier but also a dual test of technical and financial aspects. Under the pattern of institutional support and retail participation, the market may witness a historic breakout, but high volatility risks should be closely monitored.
