Once again returning to the main line of macro guidance 'story', the main factors guiding the market upward:

1. Goldman Sachs has significantly lowered its expectations for a U.S. economic recession and raised its second-quarter GDP forecast from negative to positive. Although this is just a forecast, it has once again sparked market confidence in the economy.

2. Both China and the U.S. have finally confirmed the first formal trade negotiations since the tariff policy on April 2, with the negotiation taking place in Switzerland this week. This will greatly alleviate the market pressure from the China-U.S. trade crisis, while also slowing down the expected economic damage from tariffs. This is also a major factor stimulating Goldman Sachs to adjust its expectations.

3. China's 'double reduction'—cutting interest rates and lowering reserve requirements—stimulates investor enthusiasm in the Asia-Pacific region and is beneficial for Asian risk markets. Additionally, since April when Trump initiated the trade war with China, it was emphasized that China could not devalue its currency proactively to mitigate trade shocks.

Under these circumstances, China has directly chosen to cut interest rates and lower reserve requirements. This 'double reduction' increases the speed of currency depreciation, highlighting China's strong stance in the trade war. Moreover, if both sides can meet again in Switzerland, the market may anticipate that Trump will significantly soften his stance on China-U.S. tariffs.

Furthermore, adjustments to China's interest rates are often coordinated with adjustments to U.S. interest rates. Therefore, this time, China's proactive rate cuts have sparked market speculation about the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates soon. Although this expectation is not currently reflected in CME swap rates, market sentiment also implicitly contains this expectation.

Current BTC market situation:

1. The price has quickly broken through, leading to an expansion of the range, with the overall trend moving upward. There is no divergence in the short term, and the trend is relatively strong.

2. The price has retreated back into the range on the 4-hour chart. If the price stands above the upper limit of the range, it will change the downward trend of the range. However, there is slight divergence, and after the rise, the 4-hour chart has a need for a pullback and correction. As long as the price does not fall back below 95,000 during the day for adjustment and correction, the 4-hour chart will directly reverse the downward trend from earlier this week into an upward trend again.

Phase summary:

The continuation of bullish sentiment during the day into the U.S. stock market opening phase depends on how the U.S. stock market reacts. Currently, BTC is moving quickly alongside the U.S. stock market rise, but the opening of the U.S. stock market may have a weaker impact on BTC.

Tonight's focus is on Powell's speech. Let's see how Powell influences market trends!