In simple terms, non-farm payroll data acts like a 'weather vane' for Federal Reserve policy, directly affecting market expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn determines the short-term rise and fall of high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The logic of this market trend can be broken down into three key stages:
I. How does non-farm data 'pull' Bitcoin along?
1. Data exceeding expectations shatters rate cut fantasies
In March, 177,000 new jobs were added, nearly 40% more than the market expectation of 130,000, indicating that the U.S. job market remains robust. This gives the Federal Reserve the confidence to maintain high interest rates — after all, the better the economy, the less necessity there is for interest rate cuts. The market originally bet on a greater than 60% chance of a rate cut in June, but this was directly halved to around 30% after the data was released.
2. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields 'double kill' Bitcoin
After interest rate expectations cooled, the dollar index jumped 0.8% in the short term, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared 15 basis points to 4.3%. These two indicators are like Bitcoin's 'arch enemies':
◦ Strong dollar: Bitcoin is priced in dollars, so an appreciation of the dollar will directly lower its price;
◦ Rising U.S. Treasury yields: Funds are more willing to flow into stable government bonds, reducing allocation to high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.
II. Why is your trading strategy effective?
1. Resistance levels and breakdown logic
98,000 level: This is the 'ceiling' of Bitcoin's previous upward trend, forming a strong pressure zone after multiple unsuccessful attempts to break through.
Breaking the 95,800 level: When the price falls below this key support level, it indicates a short-term trend reversal; if it rebounds to around 96,000 (i.e., the resistance level moves down), continue to short, in line with the trading principle of 'trading with the trend.'
2. The rationality of the target level
95,500 USD is the bottom of the previous consolidation range and also the watershed between bulls and bears. If it falls below this point, the nearest strong support below is at 94,000 (the low point in January 2025), so setting the target here aligns with technical analysis logic.
III. Key points to watch next: Can 94,000 hold?
1. The difference between a pullback and a reversal
◦ Pullback: If the price stabilizes around 94,000 USD, it may be a 'deep squat jump' during the upward trend, potentially hitting the 98,000 level again later.
Reversal: If it breaks below 94,000 USD and continues to fall, it may initiate a medium-term adjustment, with the next target possibly pointing to 90,000 (support at the 200-day moving average).
2. Two major signals to pay attention to
Changes in U.S. Treasury yields: If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls below 4.1%, it may alleviate selling pressure on Bitcoin;
Sentiment indicator: If the Fear & Greed Index rises from the current 'fear' range (below 40) to above 50, it indicates that funds are starting to flow back into cryptocurrency.
IV. Has the long-term logic changed?
Although under short-term pressure, the core driving factors for Bitcoin remain unchanged:
1. Institutional holdings: Institutions like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock increased their holdings in Bitcoin-related assets in the first quarter of 2025, showing long-term confidence;
2. Halving effect: Bitcoin's third halving in April 2025 will reduce the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 coins, which may support the price due to reduced supply;
3. Policy risk hedging: Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the dollar's credibility, enhancing Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as 'digital gold.'
V. Operational Suggestions (Plain Language Version)
For short-term trading, shorting lightly between 96,500-97,000 is advisable, with a stop-loss set at 97,500, targeting around 94,500-94,000;
For medium-term holders: If it breaks below 94,000 and does not recover within three days, it is recommended to reduce positions to hedge; if it stabilizes, one can gradually accumulate at lower prices;
• Newbies: Don’t chase highs or sell lows; wait for the trend to become clear before entering the market. Controlling position size is the most important thing in the current volatile market.
Summary: Non-farm data has temporarily doused interest rate cut expectations, but Bitcoin's long-term upward logic remains intact. In the short term, attention needs to be paid to the bull-bear contest around 94,000 USD; if it breaks, it may trigger a larger level of adjustment; otherwise, after a pullback, there may be an opportunity to get on board.
