I looked at the futures market, and nearly 80% of retail investors believe gold will decline. However, I noticed that those with assets above A8 are almost all bullish on gold. [At the very least, they believe it will fluctuate and do not think it will fall]

Is it just because it has doubled that it attracts the hatred of retail investors? It's human nature to not be able to stand others doing well.

Back to the point, I pulled up the historical reasons for gold dropping over 10% and rising over 20%.

Core Pattern Comparison

Downward Drivers: Strong U.S. dollar, rising real interest rates, liquidity crises, central bank sell-offs, recovery of risk appetite.

Upward Drivers: Turmoil in the monetary system, high inflation/stagflation, geopolitical crises, zero interest rates/negative real interest rates, central bank accumulation.

Common Factors: Federal Reserve monetary policy (interest rates and QE), U.S. dollar index, market sentiment (speculation/haven), supply and demand structure (central bank behavior + physical demand).

Currently, the understanding is that the king wants a weaker dollar, wants the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the central bank has not sold off and may further accumulate, de-dollarization, etc., which still favors the bullish side of gold.

Therefore, I believe it remains easy to rise and difficult to fall.