凌芸-百事通

Monday Evening Thoughts
Bitcoin price is maintaining a narrow fluctuation around the 102,000 mark. Although the overall trend shows a stepped ascent, the increase is relatively limited. The market trading atmosphere is somewhat subdued, with both bulls and bears frequently battling, and no clear dominant force has emerged.

From a short-term technical perspective, bullish forces are gradually accumulating momentum, and the market has entered an initial rebound cycle. In the short term, it is expected to continue the oscillating upward trend, testing higher price levels. However, as the price approaches the two major resistance levels of 1,023,000 and 1,028,000, it is anticipated to encounter strong resistance from bears. At that time, both bulls and bears will engage in a more intense confrontation, and the trend may become stuck in a stalemate.

For Bitcoin, rebound near the 102,300-102,800 range, while looking downward at 101,000-98,000 for a breakout to continue lower.
For Ethereum, just synchronize operations!

Monday Morning Insights
Bitcoin oscillated around the 102000 line after fluctuating near the 103300 line, and last night it fell to around the 98600 line after dropping to around 102700. The trading volume continues to increase. Ethereum fell during the day from around the 2310 line to around the 2155 line. The strong involvement of the U.S. in the Middle East situation has increased global financial market fear, and the trading volume continues to rise. The trading volume is strong, with rebounds as the main focus and short positions as a supplement. Bitcoin experienced another waterfall decline over the weekend, briefly dropping below the 100000 mark down to the 98600 line. After a four-hour closing, there was a slight rebound, but the strength was weak, and it is currently oscillating around 99300, still in an overall downtrend.
Above Bitcoin, pay attention to resistance around 100500, 101800, and 102700. Below, watch for support around 97200, 95800, and 94300.
Above Ethereum, pay attention to resistance around 2260 and 2310. Below, watch for support around 2150, 2100, and 2050.

In the short term, we are currently in a phase of oscillation and repair. The rebound momentum has somewhat increased, but it is not strong enough to change the overall downtrend. Combining the candlestick pattern of the doji and the flat-bottom, as well as the oscillation characteristics presented by the indicators, it may oscillate and consolidate in the range of 99000 to 101500 for a while. In the short term, watch for a breakthrough of the main resistance at the 102000 line. If it breaks through, it may directly form a V-shaped reversal! Risk control needs attention!

For Bitcoin, short around 1001800-101000, targeting down to 98000-97000-96000.
For Ethereum, short around 2300-2340, targeting down to 2180-2130.

Midnight Thoughts: Bitcoin oscillates near the 103300 line during the day, then falls to near the 102700 line and further down to near the 98600 line in the evening, with continuous increase in volatility. Ethereum falls to near the 2155 line during the day from around the 2310 line. The strong involvement of the US in the Middle East situation increases fear in global financial markets, and volatility continues to rise. Volatility is strong, with rebounds as the main focus and short positions as a supplement. For Bitcoin, pay attention to resistance near 100500, 101800, and 102700 above. Support is near 97200, 95800, and 94300 below.
For Ethereum, pay attention to resistance near 2260 and 2310 above. Support is near 2150, 2100, and 2050 below.

Bitcoin sells short at 100500-101300, looking down at around 97000-96000.

This insight about 'bottom fishing' is quite profound, as it explains investment logic and the game of human nature quite well～
In fact, the core idea is, as mentioned, true bottom fishing is not an impulsive gamble, but a 'gradual layout' after understanding the trend. Just like when buying vegetables and seeing prices drop, smart people won't fill their fridge all at once, but will gradually stock up as the market trends downward, getting braver to buy more when the drop is more stable, right?

The most interesting aspect of the bottom area is the 'counter-consensus'—when everyone is panicking and complaining, the red K-line actually acts like a 'discount signal,' but the premise is that you have to first understand whether this 'thing' is actually valuable. For example, when someone sees a stock plummeting and panics to sell, someone who understands will research the fundamentals, knowing that panic selling is actually an opportunity to pick up cheap chips.

The key is that last phrase 'be patient and hold your position,' after all, those who can withstand volatility in investment are the ones who can wait for the day the market takes off～ Do you usually pay attention to investments? Do you have similar insights?

The rebound is a short, expecting to lose the 100,000 mark! Don't rush to bottom fish blindly!

Don't bottom fish! It's easy to get hurt!

The market is crashing so hard this weekend, the dog traders are really brutal! Remember not to blindly bottom-fish!
Let's wait and see! Stabilize before we talk! It must not break the 100,000 mark!

Sunday Thoughts!
From the current perspective, the Israel-Palestine conflict worsened again last night. The recent situation in the Middle East is turbulent, with significant retracements occurring each time news is announced. The trend continues to decline, and we currently need to pay attention to the drop below the 100800 level. If it breaks, a major cycle retracement will occur. However, if support remains, a rebound may happen, and we should continue to maintain a low bullish stance!

From the four-hour view, we are currently at the lower support level, with the Bollinger Bands extending downward. The four-hour chart shows consecutive bearish candles with a significant break, and there is still the possibility of further probing downwards. We are still focused on the 100000 level; if it does not break, this could be an opportunity for a long-term rebound!

Bitcoin retracement to 100000-100500 with an upward target near 103500-104500.

Ethereum retracement to 2200-2180 with an upward target near 2480-2400.

Let's take a look at the futures liquidation map distribution under the long cycle of the pancake on the weekend;
During the March cycle, last night's drop liquidated the last wave of long liquidity in the range of 100,000 to 110,000, causing the balance of long and short liquidity in the current futures market to be disrupted again, with high short liquidity becoming the heavier side of the scale;

If the price does not intend to fall below the lower edge of the 100,000 range, then the ultimate target for the subsequent market will head towards 114,700...

Liquidity distribution over more than a month is usually highly distorted, as the liquidation map only marks the liquidity after futures positions are opened, and closing positions will not be displayed. Therefore, we cannot accurately know how much liquidity remains in this densely packed high short liquidity liquidation area;

After all, the price could have gone directly in before, but it chose not to liquidate and turned around due to the conflict in the Middle East...

This makes subsequent liquidity analysis even more difficult...

The high-altitude approach has always been very clear! All the way empty, super refreshing!

Trading is difficult, and it's even harder to teach those who are not suited for trading...

Trading is a profession, but it resembles a mirror, reflecting the most vulnerable parts of your soul. Overcoming the flaws in your character, mending the logical gaps within yourself, each time feels like a process of having your soul stripped away.

Others can teach you a trading system, explain how to use it, and clarify the logic and philosophy behind it, but they cannot impart faith to you, nor can they change your character.

I have seen many traders experience severe depression not just once during their low points. They doubt life, question themselves, and even completely collapse their worldview. The belief that 'as long as you work hard, you will succeed' becomes powerless in the face of the market.

If you truly embark on the path of trading, you will inevitably go through all of this...
And this pain, no one can understand, and no one can bear it for you. You must save yourself.

Current price order, steadily buying the dip! Accurate strike!

The high-altitude thinking is really stable! Tonight is really fierce. It's another river of blood!

Evening Thoughts, Rebound Overview
The Bitcoin price fell back to around 105500 after being pressured near 107700 during the afternoon. The Ethereum price fell back to around 2540 from approximately 2618 in the afternoon. Overall, there is significant pressure from above in the market, and we focus on small support near 105000 from below. The market volume gradually decreases and forms a downward trend, with the daily line turning from bullish to bearish, leaving an upper shadow on the bearish candle.

Bitcoin rebounds near 106500-107000, looking towards 105000-1014100.
Ethereum rebounds near 2590-2630, looking towards 2500-2450.

Tuesday Morning Thoughts
The large pancake continued to rise to around 108900 at midnight before falling back to around 106000. The small pancake also rose to around 2680 at midnight before retreating to around 2525. The daily candlestick of the large pancake shows an upper shadow, indicating strong resistance above, while a short-term rebound is observed.

The market will not rise because of your anxiety, nor will it fall because of your despair. The real winners do not predict the market but know how to respond to it. Stay flexible! The originally stable upward trend has been disrupted by a statement from Trump at 6:30 AM today, pushing the large pancake's resistance back to 106100. The head and shoulders pattern mentioned in yesterday's analysis has a neck line; as long as this line is not broken further down, the short-term upward trend remains unchanged. If the price can hold above 106500 on the four-hour chart, we need to monitor the rebound strength!

From the current market perspective, the overall trend's upward momentum is slowing, having undergone a correction after a high and subsequent fall. However, the daily chart still shows consecutive bullish candlesticks, indicating a clear bullish trend. The price drop this morning due to a statement from Trump certainly requires time to adjust, so today we look at a fluctuating range between 106150-108800, aiming for high sell and low buy opportunities.
In the early session, we first take advantage of the rebound, and later we consider short positions at higher levels! Specifics will depend on the market conditions set by Yunjie’s analysis! For reference only!

Large pancake: Buy at 106000-106500, target 108500-109000
Small pancake: Buy near 2500-2530, target 2650-2750

Second pancake rebounds 📈 Pullback more, looking up at the 2800 level, breaking will continue to look up

Pancake 2 pancake callback to go long, don't short, it hasn't stabilized yet! Expected to rise back above 110,000!

Current price of the pancake is around 107000, short position, looking down to 105000-104000 - (It is recommended not to chase long positions at high levels, have a defense!)

Monday Thoughts
The weekend's two-day unchanged range oscillation shows a downward trend near the 106200 line. Although there has been some rebound, the strength is limited, indicating that bullish momentum is relatively weak.

In the short term, it may continue to oscillate within the range, constrained by upper resistance at 106500-106100, while the support near 104000 at the bottom is crucial. Once it falls below this level, it may further test the previous low. However, if the upper 106200 line is breached, then we might look upwards to see if the 107500 position can hold before considering entering a short position!

After the previous decline, we have entered a consolidation phase. From a short-term candlestick analysis perspective, there is an expectation of a rebound, but with pressure above and support below. The indicators show that bears are dominant, with a weak direction that may continue the oscillation or lead to a downward adjustment.

From the candlestick perspective, a doji appears to indicate a potential trend reversal, while the black three soldiers pattern reinforces the short-term downtrend. The KDJ three lines are all positioned low and trending downwards, indicating weakness and strong selling pressure. There may be a short-term rebound, but the strength is limited.

For Bitcoin, the rebound near the 16500-107500 line indicates to look short towards 104100, followed by attention to 103500-102600 and 101800 below!

For Ethereum, the rebound near 2580-2650 indicates to look short towards 2500-2450.

1. Although the current conflict is intensifying, the market sentiment is not dominated by panic; the fear and greed index remains in a state of 'greed.' According to the latest data from Sunday, the index value is 60, staying in the 'greed' zone. Looking back to Thursday, the 'greed' score of this index was as high as 71, indicating that market sentiment was even more exuberant earlier.

2. Even as geopolitical tensions are increasing, the overall performance of the market demonstrates strong resilience. Notably, the key level of 100,000 has been successfully reclaimed for the first time since May 8. If this level is lost, it is expected to trigger large-scale liquidations, with long positions amounting to over 1.74 billion facing significant risks.