On the morning of May 2

The first piece of information from CME FedWatch indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 41.3%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 55.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.7%.

The second piece of information is that Trump will request a record $1.01 trillion in national security spending for the next fiscal year starting October 1, which is more than 13% higher than the current fiscal year's figures.

The third piece of information is that Japan's Finance Minister stated that Japan clearly needs to lay all its cards on the table in negotiations, and U.S. Treasury bonds may be one of those cards. It is reported that there is still no consensus in the second round of bilateral tariff negotiations.

The fourth piece of information is that Vice President Kamala Harris claims there is no conflict of interest, and it will be difficult to resolve in the short term.