Bitcoin analysts eye $135K target as VIX drops and crypto liquidity surges
Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing strong bullish signals across macroeconomic and on-chain indicators, with analysts predicting a potential breakout to $135,000 within the next 100 days, provided current trends hold. At the core of this forecast are three key drivers: low market volatility, growing stablecoin liquidity, and a negative BTC funding rate setting up a possible short squeeze.
Low VIX indicates risk-on sentiment fueling BTC upside potential
Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson shared a model on X linking Bitcoin’s price to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a metric for measuring short-term market uncertainty. Historically, a VIX below 18 aligns with “risk-on” sentiment, where investors rotate capital into speculative assets — including crypto. The VIX has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days and is trending lower.
According to Peterson, if the VIX remains below 18, his model — with a 95% accuracy track record — forecasts a $135,000 Bitcoin price within 100 days, fueled by declining risk aversion and bullish capital flows into crypto assets.
Bitcoin acts as both store of value and speculative asset
Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, described Bitcoin’s dual identity as “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.” He emphasized that BTC can function both as a store of value and a high-beta speculative asset, depending on macroeconomic cycles.
Timmer noted that BTC tends to surge during periods of M2 money supply expansion and rising stock markets, aligning with the current economic landscape. However, during equity corrections or contracting liquidity, BTC’s performance becomes less predictable — a contrast to gold’s steadier role as “hard money.”
Stablecoin market cap at all-time high signals crypto liquidity boom
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the total stablecoin market cap reached $220 billion, an all-time high. This is widely viewed as a bullish indicator for crypto markets since stablecoins act as dry powder for new purchases. The increase in liquidity supports the bullish case for Bitcoin, signaling capital inflows into the broader crypto ecosystem.
Historically, rising stablecoin supplies precede major BTC price moves, as traders and institutions deploy stable assets into higher-risk plays like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Negative funding rate sets up short squeeze risk to $100K
In a significant shift, BTC perpetual futures funding rates have flipped negative, reaching their lowest point in 2025. This suggests that short positions dominate, as traders increasingly bet against the rally.
As shown in Velo.chart’s 4-hour BTC funding data, this imbalance creates conditions for a short squeeze, where rising prices force short sellers to cover positions — accelerating upside moves. Cointelegraph reports that over $3 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation, potentially driving Bitcoin past $100,000 in the near term.
Stars align for Bitcoin's next all-time high
With favorable macroeconomic indicators, rising stablecoin liquidity, and an increasingly skewed derivatives market, analysts argue that Bitcoin’s next all-time high is not just possible but likely within 100 days. Should the VIX drop further, and a short squeeze materialize, Bitcoin could surge past $100K and possibly reach Peterson’s $135K target — putting BTC on track for its most significant rally since late 2021, according to Cointelegraph.
