As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the "start" rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months:

1. Optimistic (Bull).

If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds above it - the NUPL/MVRV metrics will show a new impulse and the price could reach $150-175K, repeating the cycle logic of 2017 and 2021.

2. Base Case (Consolidation).

If the Ratio remains in the 0.8-1.0 range, the market will stay in a wide corridor of $90-110K: participants maintain positions but don't increase exposure.

3. Pessimistic (Correction).

If the Ratio drops to 0.75+, short-term holders will begin to take profits, and the price could correct to $70-85K. Considering that a correction has already occurred, the first two scenarios are more likely.

I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: https://adlerinsight.com/

Good luck,

AAJ

Written by AxelAdlerJr

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