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UTXO Count Reveals Prevailing Market Sentiment.
This chart, based on UTXOs (from the block data), highlights the number of UTXOs spent either in profit or in loss.
It’s important to note that we are counting the number of UTXOs, instead of focusing on value, this chart focuses on count.
—💡It’s a more effective way to capture the overall market sentiment, the dominant one, and helps filter out the noise that value-based metrics can often produce —
🔹 The first striking observation is that UTXOs spent in profit are overwhelmingly dominant.
Since the creation of Bitcoin, making a profit has been relatively straightforward 👉🏼 buy and wait.
So ultimately, generating profit is mostly a matter of the investor's patience.
🔹 To understand the current prevailing market sentiment, we can rely on two key metrics from this chart :
• The evolution of UTXOs spent at a loss
• The ratio between UTXOs spent in profit and those spent in loss
It provides 2 signals one when profitable UTXOs strongly dominate (🟣), and another (🔵) when their dominance drops sharply.
Between July 11 and 13, the number of UTXOs spent at a loss dropped significantly.
This means that at that price level, many holders found themselves in profit and chose to realize it.
💥 As a result, the ratio also surged, exceeding the 10,000 mark, meaning UTXOs closed in profit were 10,000 times more numerous than those closed in loss.
Today, the ratio has dropped (to around 500), which suggests that profit-taking has calmed down and that even minor price drops are now enough to push the more impatient holders to realize losses.
Written by Darkfost
It’s important to note that we are counting the number of UTXOs, instead of focusing on value, this chart focuses on count.
—💡It’s a more effective way to capture the overall market sentiment, the dominant one, and helps filter out the noise that value-based metrics can often produce —
🔹 The first striking observation is that UTXOs spent in profit are overwhelmingly dominant.
Since the creation of Bitcoin, making a profit has been relatively straightforward 👉🏼 buy and wait.
So ultimately, generating profit is mostly a matter of the investor's patience.
🔹 To understand the current prevailing market sentiment, we can rely on two key metrics from this chart :
• The evolution of UTXOs spent at a loss
• The ratio between UTXOs spent in profit and those spent in loss
It provides 2 signals one when profitable UTXOs strongly dominate (🟣), and another (🔵) when their dominance drops sharply.
Between July 11 and 13, the number of UTXOs spent at a loss dropped significantly.
This means that at that price level, many holders found themselves in profit and chose to realize it.
💥 As a result, the ratio also surged, exceeding the 10,000 mark, meaning UTXOs closed in profit were 10,000 times more numerous than those closed in loss.
Today, the ratio has dropped (to around 500), which suggests that profit-taking has calmed down and that even minor price drops are now enough to push the more impatient holders to realize losses.
Written by Darkfost
Bitcoin Teleported From $112 to $115.8K – but There's Thin Air Below 🤯
On July 10, 2025, Bitcoin’s price jumped from $112,000 to $115,800 in a single move. While the increase was large, the structure behind it is weak.
The move happened so quickly that no support levels were formed along the way. On-chain data shows little activity in this price range — there’s not much evidence of strong demand between $112K and $115.8K. From a technical point of view, there’s also no price history in this zone — no past resistance or consolidation that could now act as support.
That wasn’t a concern while the price was going up. But now that it’s starting to move down, it becomes a risk. Bitcoin is sitting on the last known on-chain support area — like a shelf with nothing underneath. If momentum drops or sellers step in, the price could fall just as fast as it rose.
What to Do ?
If this final support area breaks, price could move down quickly. As long as it holds, there’s no issue — but traders should be prepared. Set a stop-loss if you’re in a trade, and watch closely. There’s little structure below to slow things down if this level fails.
Written by maartunn
The move happened so quickly that no support levels were formed along the way. On-chain data shows little activity in this price range — there’s not much evidence of strong demand between $112K and $115.8K. From a technical point of view, there’s also no price history in this zone — no past resistance or consolidation that could now act as support.
That wasn’t a concern while the price was going up. But now that it’s starting to move down, it becomes a risk. Bitcoin is sitting on the last known on-chain support area — like a shelf with nothing underneath. If momentum drops or sellers step in, the price could fall just as fast as it rose.
What to Do ?
If this final support area breaks, price could move down quickly. As long as it holds, there’s no issue — but traders should be prepared. Set a stop-loss if you’re in a trade, and watch closely. There’s little structure below to slow things down if this level fails.
Written by maartunn
Altcoin Momentum: Fresh All-time Highs for XRP and BNB
Altcoin price momentum has accelerated, propelling some of the major coins to reach new all-time highs. In the last week of July 2025, BNB has successively reached several new all-time highs above $800, eventually reaching as high as $861 and breaching the previous peak set during the 2021 bull market. Additionally, XRP has also recently reached a new all-time high at about $3.4 this month.
BNB and XRP are the most recent major altcoins that reached a new record-high price. BNB is the most recent major altcoin to break its ATH (reached two days earlier), underscoring renewed confidence in ecosystem-driven tokens, and the recent announcements of companies holding BNB in their treasury. Meanwhile, XRP reached its most recent all-time high 12 days earlier reflecting bullish sentiment potentially linked to positive legal/regulatory outcomes or institutional interest. In contrast, despite being the largest altcoin, ETH has not reclaimed its 2021 highs, suggesting institutional accumulation has not yet been enough to offset the sell pressure.
BNB leads with the lowest drawdown, confirming it is trading at or near its recent new all-time highs. Moreover, BNB consistently held the shallowest drawdowns throughout the year, never falling more than ~30% below its ATH. This reflects strong investor confidence and sustained demand, likely driven by BNB Chain activity and the token's utility within Binance and BNB Chain ecosystems.
Written by CQ Research
BNB and XRP are the most recent major altcoins that reached a new record-high price. BNB is the most recent major altcoin to break its ATH (reached two days earlier), underscoring renewed confidence in ecosystem-driven tokens, and the recent announcements of companies holding BNB in their treasury. Meanwhile, XRP reached its most recent all-time high 12 days earlier reflecting bullish sentiment potentially linked to positive legal/regulatory outcomes or institutional interest. In contrast, despite being the largest altcoin, ETH has not reclaimed its 2021 highs, suggesting institutional accumulation has not yet been enough to offset the sell pressure.
BNB leads with the lowest drawdown, confirming it is trading at or near its recent new all-time highs. Moreover, BNB consistently held the shallowest drawdowns throughout the year, never falling more than ~30% below its ATH. This reflects strong investor confidence and sustained demand, likely driven by BNB Chain activity and the token's utility within Binance and BNB Chain ecosystems.
Written by CQ Research
Retail Selling Surges on Binance As Whales Accumulate $900M in ETH
🐜 Retail Investors Increase Exchange Deposits to Binance
* The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows from (STHs) to Binance has surged dramatically—from around 10,000 BTC to over 36,000 BTC by the end of July.
* This sharp increase, as visualized in the chart, suggests unusual activity among retail traders, likely driven by profit-taking behavior.
* Such a spike in exchange inflows typically indicates that short-term investors are preparing to sell, especially when prices reach new highs.
* The timing aligns with Bitcoin’s recent rally to record levels, reinforcing the hypothesis that individual traders are reducing their exposure to BTC.
🐋 Whale Screener: Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation:
* In stark contrast to retail behavior, the Whale Screener chart reveals a massive accumulation event.
* On July 31st, tracked whale wallets withdrew over $900 million worth of ETH from centralized exchanges.
* Such large-scale withdrawals are typically associated with accumulation strategies, where whales move assets off exchanges to cold storage, signaling a bullish outlook.
🏦 Macro Context: Fed Decision Fuels Divergence
The divergence between retail selling and whale accumulation becomes clearer in light of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady.
While this move was broadly expected, it has reinvigorated institutional interest in crypto assets.
Retail investors, on the other hand, appear to be more risk-averse, preferring to lock in profits rather than ride the wave of institutional buying.
This behavior underscores a recurring market dynamic: retail tends to sell into strength, while whales accumulate during periods of macroeconomic clarity.
Written by Amr Taha
* The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows from (STHs) to Binance has surged dramatically—from around 10,000 BTC to over 36,000 BTC by the end of July.
* This sharp increase, as visualized in the chart, suggests unusual activity among retail traders, likely driven by profit-taking behavior.
* Such a spike in exchange inflows typically indicates that short-term investors are preparing to sell, especially when prices reach new highs.
* The timing aligns with Bitcoin’s recent rally to record levels, reinforcing the hypothesis that individual traders are reducing their exposure to BTC.
🐋 Whale Screener: Aggressive Ethereum Accumulation:
* In stark contrast to retail behavior, the Whale Screener chart reveals a massive accumulation event.
* On July 31st, tracked whale wallets withdrew over $900 million worth of ETH from centralized exchanges.
* Such large-scale withdrawals are typically associated with accumulation strategies, where whales move assets off exchanges to cold storage, signaling a bullish outlook.
🏦 Macro Context: Fed Decision Fuels Divergence
The divergence between retail selling and whale accumulation becomes clearer in light of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady.
While this move was broadly expected, it has reinvigorated institutional interest in crypto assets.
Retail investors, on the other hand, appear to be more risk-averse, preferring to lock in profits rather than ride the wave of institutional buying.
This behavior underscores a recurring market dynamic: retail tends to sell into strength, while whales accumulate during periods of macroeconomic clarity.
Written by Amr Taha
Under High Leverage and Positive Financing: Can Bitcoin Survive?
Estimated Leverage?
It is a ratio that measures the extent to which traders use leverage. It is calculated by dividing open contracts in the derivatives market by the Bitcoin balance on all exchanges.
In other words, the higher the ratio, the more traders are using loans (leverage) compared to their actual balance on exchanges. The market relies on borrowed capital, not real capital. This indicates that the upward momentum is driven by leverage, not actual long-term buying.
The Estimated Leverage is gradually returning to its upward trend, now at 0.273, which is relatively high compared to the correction phase. This indicates that the market contains a large number of highly leveraged positions, meaning that any sudden downward movement could lead to mass liquidations and a sharp decline, supported by high positive funding rates.
During periods of high Estimated Leverage, gains are unstable and fleeting, providing an opportunity for short speculators. It may also be an opportunity for futures traders if liquidation begins. The rising index indicates that investors still have an appetite for risk. Excessive confidence due to the breakout of the all-time high has prompted traders to enter into leveraged trades. The current phase resembles the "Euphoria Phase" of the psychological market cycle.
Written by Arab Chain
It is a ratio that measures the extent to which traders use leverage. It is calculated by dividing open contracts in the derivatives market by the Bitcoin balance on all exchanges.
In other words, the higher the ratio, the more traders are using loans (leverage) compared to their actual balance on exchanges. The market relies on borrowed capital, not real capital. This indicates that the upward momentum is driven by leverage, not actual long-term buying.
The Estimated Leverage is gradually returning to its upward trend, now at 0.273, which is relatively high compared to the correction phase. This indicates that the market contains a large number of highly leveraged positions, meaning that any sudden downward movement could lead to mass liquidations and a sharp decline, supported by high positive funding rates.
During periods of high Estimated Leverage, gains are unstable and fleeting, providing an opportunity for short speculators. It may also be an opportunity for futures traders if liquidation begins. The rising index indicates that investors still have an appetite for risk. Excessive confidence due to the breakout of the all-time high has prompted traders to enter into leveraged trades. The current phase resembles the "Euphoria Phase" of the psychological market cycle.
Written by Arab Chain
Binance Is Regaining Dominance in the Bitcoin Spot Market — and Institutional Participation Along...
In recent weeks, we've observed a notable shift in the structure of Bitcoin’s spot volume: Binance’s dominance has been steadily increasing. Back in April, it accounted for around 40%, and now it's approaching 45% of all spot volume, nearing the point of surpassing — or flipping — the combined volume of all other exchanges.
📈 Historical context
This isn’t unprecedented. In previous cycles, when Binance took the lead in spot volume dominance, the Bitcoin market followed with significant price appreciation. This trend is often attributed to increased liquidity, deeper order books, and the influx of institutional players seeking more efficient execution with lower slippage.
📉 Data analysis
The Spot Volume Delta between Binance and other exchanges shows a clear behavioral shift: after months of negative net flow (Binance losing share), we're now seeing evidence of reversal, with occasional sessions of positive inflow.
In the percentage distribution chart, Binance’s recovery is clear, reaching its highest dominance level since late 2023.
Meanwhile, the absolute volume chart shows that despite Binance gaining market share, the overall spot market volume remains below the peaks seen in late 2024 and early 2025.
🔎 Market implications
This renewed dominance by Binance could signal a recentralization of liquidity, potentially enabling more efficient price discovery and foreshadowing directional moves in the short to mid-term. Historically, such consolidation has preceded expansion phases in the crypto market.
📌 Final remark
Despite Binance regaining dominance, it’s important to note that the aggregate spot volume is still below the highs observed at the end of the last cycle (Q4 2024). This suggests there's still room for growth, both in institutional adoption and retail participation.
Written by joaowedson
📈 Historical context
This isn’t unprecedented. In previous cycles, when Binance took the lead in spot volume dominance, the Bitcoin market followed with significant price appreciation. This trend is often attributed to increased liquidity, deeper order books, and the influx of institutional players seeking more efficient execution with lower slippage.
📉 Data analysis
The Spot Volume Delta between Binance and other exchanges shows a clear behavioral shift: after months of negative net flow (Binance losing share), we're now seeing evidence of reversal, with occasional sessions of positive inflow.
In the percentage distribution chart, Binance’s recovery is clear, reaching its highest dominance level since late 2023.
Meanwhile, the absolute volume chart shows that despite Binance gaining market share, the overall spot market volume remains below the peaks seen in late 2024 and early 2025.
🔎 Market implications
This renewed dominance by Binance could signal a recentralization of liquidity, potentially enabling more efficient price discovery and foreshadowing directional moves in the short to mid-term. Historically, such consolidation has preceded expansion phases in the crypto market.
📌 Final remark
Despite Binance regaining dominance, it’s important to note that the aggregate spot volume is still below the highs observed at the end of the last cycle (Q4 2024). This suggests there's still room for growth, both in institutional adoption and retail participation.
Written by joaowedson
Ethereum Takes the Lead in Capital Rotation
Since the April lows, Bitcoin has risen by approximately +66%, while Ethereum has outperformed with an impressive +93% gain. What stands out even more is Ethereum’s explosive breakout starting mid-July. Until then, ETH had been moving in tandem with BTC, but from July onward, it began to lead the market with a strong upward trajectory.
A key driver behind this move appears to be ETF inflows. Looking at the ETF volume data at the bottom of the chart, we can see that Bitcoin ETF volumes have remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a consistent range. In contrast, Ethereum ETF volumes surged notably during the same period Ethereum’s price spiked in mid-July. This mirrors the previous pattern where capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs significantly boosted BTC prices.
In this context, Ethereum’s rally can be interpreted as a capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum, driven by institutional interest through ETF products. It’s a classic pattern in crypto markets: BTC → ETH → Alts, and this recent shift suggests that Ethereum is currently the focal point of this rotation.
With ETF volume offering concrete evidence of this shift, it’s clear that Ethereum is once again positioning itself at the center of market momentum.
Written by Yonsei_dent
A key driver behind this move appears to be ETF inflows. Looking at the ETF volume data at the bottom of the chart, we can see that Bitcoin ETF volumes have remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a consistent range. In contrast, Ethereum ETF volumes surged notably during the same period Ethereum’s price spiked in mid-July. This mirrors the previous pattern where capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs significantly boosted BTC prices.
In this context, Ethereum’s rally can be interpreted as a capital rotation from Bitcoin into Ethereum, driven by institutional interest through ETF products. It’s a classic pattern in crypto markets: BTC → ETH → Alts, and this recent shift suggests that Ethereum is currently the focal point of this rotation.
With ETF volume offering concrete evidence of this shift, it’s clear that Ethereum is once again positioning itself at the center of market momentum.
Written by Yonsei_dent
Whales Bitcoin Holdings Are Still Trending Upward.
Historically, the 2021 cycle peak coincided with a significant decline in whale holdings. Should the current whale accumulation trend reverse, we could be approaching a potential cycle top formation.
Written by crypto sunmoon
Written by crypto sunmoon
Bitcoin: Fund to All Exchange Reserve Ratio Institutional Bitcoin Demand Continues
Similar to the 2020-2021 bull market, the ratio of fund bitcoin holdings relative to exchange reserves continues to increase, driving bitcoin prices higher.
If funds continue their bitcoin buying demand, bitcoin will achieve even higher price levels.
Written by crypto sunmoon
If funds continue their bitcoin buying demand, bitcoin will achieve even higher price levels.
Written by crypto sunmoon
Bitcoin: Fund to All Exchange Reserve Ratio Institutional Bitcoin Demand Continues
Similar to the 2020-2021 bull market, the ratio of fund bitcoin holdings relative to exchange reserves continues to increase, driving bitcoin prices higher.
If funds continue their bitcoin buying demand, bitcoin will achieve even higher price levels.
Written by crypto sunmoon
If funds continue their bitcoin buying demand, bitcoin will achieve even higher price levels.
Written by crypto sunmoon
Bitcoin Metric of the Day | Retail Vs Whales
#Bitcoin Metric of the Day | Retail vs Whales.
Whales stalled at 16.673 M BTC while retail just ticked up for the first time in 9 months.
Since Nov 2024, whales +450k $BTC; past 2 weeks retail +2k BTC.
When big wallets pause and small ones buy, it often marks early FOMO near local tops.
Written by IT Tech
Whales stalled at 16.673 M BTC while retail just ticked up for the first time in 9 months.
Since Nov 2024, whales +450k $BTC; past 2 weeks retail +2k BTC.
When big wallets pause and small ones buy, it often marks early FOMO near local tops.
Written by IT Tech
⚠️ the $111k Bitcoin Gap Nobody’s Talking About – but Will Be Tested Again
Between July 9 and 14, Bitcoin had a very fast, non-stop rally from 110k to 123k. It happened so quickly that the 111k–117k range was passed like transit, and nobody even understood what happened. Also (we know from our past analysis) on-chain data like Active Addresses, New Addresses and Network Activity shows that there was no strong retail presence in the market during that time. The rally was mostly driven by institutional buying, which usually causes such rapid price movements without many small investors reacting.
✅ Because of this, few transfers occurred in the 111k-117k zone, and UTxOs could not form. As shown in the images, this created a visible gap in the UTxO histogram. This gap represents an unrealized area.
💪🏻As an analyst with 9 years of experience and over 5 years working with on-chain data, I’ve seen this kind of gap many times. Throughout Bitcoin’s 16 year history, such gaps appeared from time to time but were later filled as the price revisited those zones. Since I first shared this observation on July 14, prices like 115k, 116k, and 117k have already been realized, partly filling the gap. However, the 111k–115k area still remains unfilled.
That’s why, although I’m BULLISH in the medium term, I believe this gap will eventually be filled and the 111k–115k range will be realized at the end of the day.
⚠️In short, we’ll likely see 111k again, even if just once.
Remember last year (2024), there was also a UTxO gap between 70k and 80k. Price skipped over it to reach 110k and a new ATH, but later returned to the 70k zone and filled that gap at the end of the day.
🎯 As for the 111k test; whether it will happen through a direct drop from today’s level, or after a move to 140k followed by a correction that I can’t say. But either way, I believe the gap will be filled! So investors should know that, even in this bullish environment, a pullback toward 111k is still possible, and they should adjust their positions, leverage, and risk levels accordingly.
Written by CryptoMe
✅ Because of this, few transfers occurred in the 111k-117k zone, and UTxOs could not form. As shown in the images, this created a visible gap in the UTxO histogram. This gap represents an unrealized area.
💪🏻As an analyst with 9 years of experience and over 5 years working with on-chain data, I’ve seen this kind of gap many times. Throughout Bitcoin’s 16 year history, such gaps appeared from time to time but were later filled as the price revisited those zones. Since I first shared this observation on July 14, prices like 115k, 116k, and 117k have already been realized, partly filling the gap. However, the 111k–115k area still remains unfilled.
That’s why, although I’m BULLISH in the medium term, I believe this gap will eventually be filled and the 111k–115k range will be realized at the end of the day.
⚠️In short, we’ll likely see 111k again, even if just once.
Remember last year (2024), there was also a UTxO gap between 70k and 80k. Price skipped over it to reach 110k and a new ATH, but later returned to the 70k zone and filled that gap at the end of the day.
🎯 As for the 111k test; whether it will happen through a direct drop from today’s level, or after a move to 140k followed by a correction that I can’t say. But either way, I believe the gap will be filled! So investors should know that, even in this bullish environment, a pullback toward 111k is still possible, and they should adjust their positions, leverage, and risk levels accordingly.
Written by CryptoMe
New Investor Dominance Is Growing, Market in Stable Late Bull Cycle Phase
On the chart, the orange column peaks (64% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2024) coincided with local price maximums, at which point the influx of new liquidity was exhausted and old holders began actively taking profits. The current value of 30% is only half of the "overheated" levels, but the trend is directed upward: the purple fill (cumulative activity of young coins) has been steadily growing since July 2024. This indicates that a notable layer of new buyers is entering the market, however pressure from more experienced players is not yet critical.
Market conclusions for end of July 2025:
1. New investor dominance is strengthening, but there is still room before extreme levels. This creates space for continuation of the bullish impulse before the typical euphoria zone above 60-70% emerges.
2. Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations. From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.
3. If the indicator's growth accelerates and approaches the historical corridor of 0.6-0.7, one should expect intensified profit-taking and, consequently, a correction. For now, the supply/demand structure remains in a healthy late bull cycle phase, when new money is coming in but old players have not yet transitioned to mass selling.
I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: adlerinsight.com
Good luck,
AAJ
Written by AxelAdlerJr
Market conclusions for end of July 2025:
1. New investor dominance is strengthening, but there is still room before extreme levels. This creates space for continuation of the bullish impulse before the typical euphoria zone above 60-70% emerges.
2. Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations. From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.
3. If the indicator's growth accelerates and approaches the historical corridor of 0.6-0.7, one should expect intensified profit-taking and, consequently, a correction. For now, the supply/demand structure remains in a healthy late bull cycle phase, when new money is coming in but old players have not yet transitioned to mass selling.
I'd like to remind you that each week I publish a detailed review on Substack, where I analyze not only on-chain data, but also macroeconomics, stocks, futures, and news from the past week, providing practical recommendations for Bitcoin. You can subscribe here: adlerinsight.com
Good luck,
AAJ
Written by AxelAdlerJr
The Role of DWOLF Token and Meme Coins in SunSwap’s Trading Volume on the TRON Network
A comprehensive analysis of SunSwap’s historical data reveals that meme coins—particularly the DWOLF token, which accounts for 19.94% of total trading volume—have had a significant presence on this decentralized platform. Additionally, eight other tokens, including BULL, BOM, YUNA, BRUG, GOAT, MUFFLE, BLOOP, and MAO, each represent approximately 10% of cumulative trading volume. This distribution highlights the dynamism of the ecosystem and the active engagement of users with diverse and emerging tokens on the TRON network.
The prominent role of meme coins on SunSwap, in addition to boosting liquidity, demonstrates TRON’s capacity to attract innovative projects and foster a competitive environment for both developers and investors. SunSwap has thus become an efficient platform for experimenting with and adopting new ideas, playing a key role in expanding access to DeFi services within the TRON ecosystem.
Alongside the growth in trading activity focused on new tokens, TRON’s fast and low-cost infrastructure has strengthened user trust and increased the appeal of SunSwap among decentralized exchanges. The synergy resulting from token diversity and active community participation is a crucial factor in the ecosystem’s long-term stability and growth.
In summary, the notable success of tokens such as DWOLF, and the widespread embrace of similar projects, underscore the significant potential of SunSwap and the TRON network to facilitate innovation, increase liquidity, and foster the expansion of decentralized financial markets.
Written by CryptoOnchain
The prominent role of meme coins on SunSwap, in addition to boosting liquidity, demonstrates TRON’s capacity to attract innovative projects and foster a competitive environment for both developers and investors. SunSwap has thus become an efficient platform for experimenting with and adopting new ideas, playing a key role in expanding access to DeFi services within the TRON ecosystem.
Alongside the growth in trading activity focused on new tokens, TRON’s fast and low-cost infrastructure has strengthened user trust and increased the appeal of SunSwap among decentralized exchanges. The synergy resulting from token diversity and active community participation is a crucial factor in the ecosystem’s long-term stability and growth.
In summary, the notable success of tokens such as DWOLF, and the widespread embrace of similar projects, underscore the significant potential of SunSwap and the TRON network to facilitate innovation, increase liquidity, and foster the expansion of decentralized financial markets.
Written by CryptoOnchain
The MVRV Indicator Is Converging Toward Its 365-day MA. What Comes Next?
The MVRV ratio is an indicator that reflects whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued. Historically, values below 1 have often marked bottoms, while readings above 3.7 have signaled market tops.
The current MVRV stands at 2.2 and is converging toward its 365-day moving average. In the past, similar periods of convergence were often followed by price increases, with the MVRV ratio rising toward overvalued levels. This is similar to how a company’s stock price rarely lingers around its long-term moving average for long.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin appears to be in an energy-consolidation phase ahead of its next upward move, and the MVRV ratio is likely to rise toward the overvaluation zone soon.
Written by CoinCare
The current MVRV stands at 2.2 and is converging toward its 365-day moving average. In the past, similar periods of convergence were often followed by price increases, with the MVRV ratio rising toward overvalued levels. This is similar to how a company’s stock price rarely lingers around its long-term moving average for long.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin appears to be in an energy-consolidation phase ahead of its next upward move, and the MVRV ratio is likely to rise toward the overvaluation zone soon.
Written by CoinCare
The Relationship Between OTC Wallet Balance and Bitcoin Price: What Does the Data Tell Us?
What is OTC trading? and why is it important? It is Bitcoin trading outside of centralized exchanges, typically used by large investors (market whales) or institutions.
A high OTC balance means that more Bitcoin is being transferred to OTC wallets, usually in preparation for selling. Considering previous periods when OTC balances rose, the price of Bitcoin fell. This occurred between 2018 and 2021, indicating a sell-off that was accompanied by a decline in the price of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a low OTC balance indicates the withdrawal of Bitcoin from these wallets, often to cold storage, indicating an intention to hold it.
During periods of low OTC, this indicates an exit of Bitcoin from OTC exchanges. This can be interpreted as a bullish signal because large entities may not intend to sell soon. As the indicator shows, over the past few days, there has been a significant decline in OTC balances, indicating the exit of Bitcoin from OTC exchanges to cold storage (wallets). This indicates that these individuals are waiting for further increases in Bitcoin prices and have no intention of selling at this time.
Written by Arab Chain
A high OTC balance means that more Bitcoin is being transferred to OTC wallets, usually in preparation for selling. Considering previous periods when OTC balances rose, the price of Bitcoin fell. This occurred between 2018 and 2021, indicating a sell-off that was accompanied by a decline in the price of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a low OTC balance indicates the withdrawal of Bitcoin from these wallets, often to cold storage, indicating an intention to hold it.
During periods of low OTC, this indicates an exit of Bitcoin from OTC exchanges. This can be interpreted as a bullish signal because large entities may not intend to sell soon. As the indicator shows, over the past few days, there has been a significant decline in OTC balances, indicating the exit of Bitcoin from OTC exchanges to cold storage (wallets). This indicates that these individuals are waiting for further increases in Bitcoin prices and have no intention of selling at this time.
Written by Arab Chain
Ethereum: Warming Up for a True Rally
The recent four-month rally in Ethereum mirrors the price increase that occurred from October 2023 to March 2024, which lasted about five months.
However, the pattern of the futures market funding rate is showing a completely different trend. During the previous rally(2023-2024), funding rates surged sharply, whereas in the current rally, there has been no overheating in funding rates. In fact, the current funding rates are closer to the levels seen before the October 2023 rally began.
Conclusion:
A cooldown after a short-term surge is essential. Once this brief rally takes a breather, Ethereum is likely to enter a full-fledged rally, accompanied by a sharp rise in funding rates.
Written by CoinCare
However, the pattern of the futures market funding rate is showing a completely different trend. During the previous rally(2023-2024), funding rates surged sharply, whereas in the current rally, there has been no overheating in funding rates. In fact, the current funding rates are closer to the levels seen before the October 2023 rally began.
Conclusion:
A cooldown after a short-term surge is essential. Once this brief rally takes a breather, Ethereum is likely to enter a full-fledged rally, accompanied by a sharp rise in funding rates.
Written by CoinCare
🚀 the Whale's Clock: Why 9-11 AM UTC Is the "Rush Hour" for Million-Dollar Transactions on TRON
A fascinating analysis of TRON network data reveals an impressive pattern: USDT transactions above $1 million reach their absolute peak between 9-11 AM UTC, creating a true "rush hour" for big players in the crypto market.
🌅 The 9-11 AM UTC Phenomenon
During this two-hour window, the volume of million-dollar transactions explodes, frequently reaching $400M+ in USDT. But why exactly at this time?
🌍 The Magic of Global Time Zones
The 9-11 AM UTC timeframe is no coincidence - it's the sweet spot where major financial markets align:
🇪🇺 Europe: 10 AM-12 PM (local time) - European markets in full swing
🇺🇸 US East Coast: 5-7 AM (local time) - Pre-market and trading opening
🇨🇳 Asia: 5-7 PM (local time) - End of business day, position closing
🇯🇵 Japan: 6-8 PM (local time) - Active after-market hours
💡 Why This Time Window is Critical
Market Overlap: When London and New York start "talking," creating maximum global liquidity
Institutional Arbitrage: Big players capitalize on price differences between awakening markets
Portfolio Rebalancing: Funds and institutions make daily position adjustments
Fresh Capital Injection: New institutional investments processed at Western business day start
📉 The Great Silence After 7 PM UTC
Starting at 7 PM UTC, we observe a drastic drop in million-dollar transactions because:
🌙 USA: Markets closing (3-5 PM local)
🌃 Europe: End of business hours (8-10 PM local)
🌅 Asia: Still early morning (3-5 AM local)
🌙 The Timid Revival at Dawn
During UTC dawn hours, we see slight volume recovery, but nothing comparable to the 9-11 AM tsunami. This represents Asian traders starting their day and automated operations.
🎯 What This Reveals
Despite Bitcoin and cryptos "never sleeping," big money follows traditional market rhythms. Whales swim 24/7, but prefer major moves when Wall Street and London are awake.
Conclusion: Want to track serious money on TRON? Set your alarm for 9 AM UTC!
Written by joaowedson
🌅 The 9-11 AM UTC Phenomenon
During this two-hour window, the volume of million-dollar transactions explodes, frequently reaching $400M+ in USDT. But why exactly at this time?
🌍 The Magic of Global Time Zones
The 9-11 AM UTC timeframe is no coincidence - it's the sweet spot where major financial markets align:
🇪🇺 Europe: 10 AM-12 PM (local time) - European markets in full swing
🇺🇸 US East Coast: 5-7 AM (local time) - Pre-market and trading opening
🇨🇳 Asia: 5-7 PM (local time) - End of business day, position closing
🇯🇵 Japan: 6-8 PM (local time) - Active after-market hours
💡 Why This Time Window is Critical
Market Overlap: When London and New York start "talking," creating maximum global liquidity
Institutional Arbitrage: Big players capitalize on price differences between awakening markets
Portfolio Rebalancing: Funds and institutions make daily position adjustments
Fresh Capital Injection: New institutional investments processed at Western business day start
📉 The Great Silence After 7 PM UTC
Starting at 7 PM UTC, we observe a drastic drop in million-dollar transactions because:
🌙 USA: Markets closing (3-5 PM local)
🌃 Europe: End of business hours (8-10 PM local)
🌅 Asia: Still early morning (3-5 AM local)
🌙 The Timid Revival at Dawn
During UTC dawn hours, we see slight volume recovery, but nothing comparable to the 9-11 AM tsunami. This represents Asian traders starting their day and automated operations.
🎯 What This Reveals
Despite Bitcoin and cryptos "never sleeping," big money follows traditional market rhythms. Whales swim 24/7, but prefer major moves when Wall Street and London are awake.
Conclusion: Want to track serious money on TRON? Set your alarm for 9 AM UTC!
Written by joaowedson
Bearish Risk in Bitcoin Holdings Percentage By U.S. Institutions
In the short term, when the percentage of bitcoin held by U.S.-based institutions decreases, bitcoin price has shown medium to long-term sideways movement and correction phases.
Currently, the percentage of bitcoin held by U.S.-based institutions is showing bearish signs, with the possibility of a death cross formation increasing.
Written by crypto sunmoon
Currently, the percentage of bitcoin held by U.S.-based institutions is showing bearish signs, with the possibility of a death cross formation increasing.
Written by crypto sunmoon
Binance Net Taker Volume Turns Deeply Negative Ahead of FOMC
Market Analysis: Bitcoin Taker Activity, Whale Movements, and U.S. Labor Data Ahead of FOMC
* The latest U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data came in at 104,000, significantly above the forecast of 77,000, signaling continued resilience in the U.S. labor market.
* This stronger-than-expected reading suggests that private-sector job creation remains robust, a factor that could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process.
Binance: Net Taker Volume Reenters Deep Negative Territory:
* The Net Taker Volume on Binance has shown renewed bearish activity, with volume revisiting the -80 million USD zone.
* This reflects a notable increase in aggressive selling, either from retail traders offloading spot positions or from traders opening new short positions, speculating on further downside.
* The consistent red clusters—particularly during the July 25 and July 29 selloffs—highlight heightened bearish sentiment, possibly driven by macro uncertainty or recent price volatility.
Whale Activity Signals Accumulation and Positioning:
On July 30, the Whale Screener detected meaningful activity.
* Notably, there was an increase in stablecoin deposits (USDT), coupled with Bitcoin withdrawals, which suggests accumulation behavior.
* Such flows can act as a bullish divergence from short-term retail selling pressure.
Conclusion: Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady Amid Strong Jobs Report
* The recent activity on Binance Net Taker Volume indicates a significant change in retail sentiment, with many traders selling spot Bitcoin or opening short positions, reflecting an increase in bearish expectations.
* In contrast, select whale wallets have shown increased activity by depositing stablecoins and withdrawing Bitcoin, a classic accumulation pattern that often precedes bullish reversals.
* With today’s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the upcoming policy decision.
Written by Amr Taha
* The latest U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data came in at 104,000, significantly above the forecast of 77,000, signaling continued resilience in the U.S. labor market.
* This stronger-than-expected reading suggests that private-sector job creation remains robust, a factor that could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process.
Binance: Net Taker Volume Reenters Deep Negative Territory:
* The Net Taker Volume on Binance has shown renewed bearish activity, with volume revisiting the -80 million USD zone.
* This reflects a notable increase in aggressive selling, either from retail traders offloading spot positions or from traders opening new short positions, speculating on further downside.
* The consistent red clusters—particularly during the July 25 and July 29 selloffs—highlight heightened bearish sentiment, possibly driven by macro uncertainty or recent price volatility.
Whale Activity Signals Accumulation and Positioning:
On July 30, the Whale Screener detected meaningful activity.
* Notably, there was an increase in stablecoin deposits (USDT), coupled with Bitcoin withdrawals, which suggests accumulation behavior.
* Such flows can act as a bullish divergence from short-term retail selling pressure.
Conclusion: Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady Amid Strong Jobs Report
* The recent activity on Binance Net Taker Volume indicates a significant change in retail sentiment, with many traders selling spot Bitcoin or opening short positions, reflecting an increase in bearish expectations.
* In contrast, select whale wallets have shown increased activity by depositing stablecoins and withdrawing Bitcoin, a classic accumulation pattern that often precedes bullish reversals.
* With today’s FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the upcoming policy decision.
Written by Amr Taha
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