One of the most effective metrics for assessing real market sentiment from the blockchain is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). This tool compares Bitcoin’s current market price to the average acquisition cost of all BTC. In other words, it measures how much unrealized profit investors hold on average.
Formula: MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap
Simply put, it’s like dividing the total market value of all BTC by the total amount originally spent (in dollars) to acquire those BTC when they last moved on-chain.
What Is MVRV Showing Us Now?
Since April 8, when the MVRV metric bottomed at 1.74, unrealized profits on the Bitcoin blockchain have gradually increased as the price has risen, reaching 2.1199 by April 29. This represents a 21.84% increase in just 21 days—highlighting a clear shift in market sentiment and a significant revaluation of average positions held by investors.
Note: This is an average across the entire Bitcoin blockchain, measured collectively, not individual.
→ See Metrics 1 and 2
How to Interpret This in the Current Cycle:
Historically, MVRV values above 3.5 to 4.0 have marked market cycle tops. Today, although we remain below that range, the pace of growth in the MVRV suggests increasing bullish pressure, which—if sustained—could trigger distribution phases.
Furthermore, a steadily rising MVRV implies that more and more holders are in profit, which can lead to partial selling or profit-taking, especially around key technical resistance levels.
✅ Conclusion
The data indicates that the market is recovering rapidly, and that investor confidence remains strongly placed in Bitcoin, with expectations of continued upward movement that could further increase profits in the short term.
All signs suggest that the bull market is not yet over for BTC, and that a strong and possibly final expansive move may still lie ahead.
Signed by Carmelo Alemán
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Written by Carmelo_Alemán
